Recent polling ahead of the November 7 election shows both National and Labour struggling below 30 percent, creating space for minor parties to contest third place amid fragmented voter shifts. New Zealand First maintains a solid base around 8–12 percent across surveys, supporting its leading market position, while the Greens have posted sharper gains in the latest Taxpayers’ Union–Curia results to reach 13.9 percent. ACT has also risen but trails the front-runners, and Opportunity remains below the 5 percent threshold. These movements reflect ongoing volatility in minor-party support rather than decisive swings, with the two-month timeline leaving room for further adjustments before votes are cast.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNew Zealand Election: 3rd Place
New Zealand Election: 3rd Place
New Zealand First Party 62%
Green Party 38%
National Party 2.3%
ACT New Zealand 1.9%
$13,868 Vol.
$13,868 Vol.
Nov 6, 2026
New Zealand First Party
62%
Green Party
38%
National Party
2%
ACT New Zealand
2%
Te Pāti Māori
<1%
Labour Party
<1%
New Zealand First Party 62%
Green Party 38%
National Party 2.3%
ACT New Zealand 1.9%
$13,868 Vol.
$13,868 Vol.
Nov 6, 2026
New Zealand First Party
$5,210 Vol.
62%
Green Party
$5,694 Vol.
38%
National Party
$415 Vol.
2%
ACT New Zealand
$709 Vol.
2%
Te Pāti Māori
$774 Vol.
<1%
Labour Party
$1,065 Vol.
<1%
A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the third-greatest number of seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives as a result of this election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid party list votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party name. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the New Zealand House of Representatives in this election.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by New Zealand government sources such as the New Zealand Electoral Commission (https://elections.nz/).Recent polling ahead of the November 7 election shows both National and Labour struggling below 30 percent, creating space for minor parties to contest third place amid fragmented voter shifts. New Zealand First maintains a solid base around 8–12 percent across surveys, supporting its leading market position, while the Greens have posted sharper gains in the latest Taxpayers’ Union–Curia results to reach 13.9 percent. ACT has also risen but trails the front-runners, and Opportunity remains below the 5 percent threshold. These movements reflect ongoing volatility in minor-party support rather than decisive swings, with the two-month timeline leaving room for further adjustments before votes are cast.
A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the third-greatest number of seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives as a result of this election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid party list votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party name. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the New Zealand House of Representatives in this election.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by New Zealand government sources such as the New Zealand Electoral Commission (https://elections.nz/).
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the third-greatest number of seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives as a result of this election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid party list votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party name. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the New Zealand House of Representatives in this election.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by New Zealand government sources such as the New Zealand Electoral Commission (https://elections.nz/).
Market Opened: Apr 29, 2026, 7:51 PM ET
Volume
$13,868End Date
Nov 7, 2026Market Opened
Apr 29, 2026, 7:51 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the third-greatest number of seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives as a result of this election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid party list votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party name. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the New Zealand House of Representatives in this election.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by New Zealand government sources such as the New Zealand Electoral Commission (https://elections.nz/).Recent polling ahead of the November 7 election shows both National and Labour struggling below 30 percent, creating space for minor parties to contest third place amid fragmented voter shifts. New Zealand First maintains a solid base around 8–12 percent across surveys, supporting its leading market position, while the Greens have posted sharper gains in the latest Taxpayers’ Union–Curia results to reach 13.9 percent. ACT has also risen but trails the front-runners, and Opportunity remains below the 5 percent threshold. These movements reflect ongoing volatility in minor-party support rather than decisive swings, with the two-month timeline leaving room for further adjustments before votes are cast.
A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the third-greatest number of seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives as a result of this election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid party list votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party name. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the New Zealand House of Representatives in this election.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by New Zealand government sources such as the New Zealand Electoral Commission (https://elections.nz/).
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the third-greatest number of seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives as a result of this election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid party list votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party name. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the New Zealand House of Representatives in this election.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by New Zealand government sources such as the New Zealand Electoral Commission (https://elections.nz/).
Volume
$13,868End Date
Nov 7, 2026Market Opened
Apr 29, 2026, 7:51 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling ahead of the November 7 election shows both National and Labour struggling below 30 percent, creating space for minor parties to contest third place amid fragmented voter shifts. New Zealand First maintains a solid base around 8–12 percent across surveys, supporting its leading market position, while the Greens have posted sharper gains in the latest Taxpayers’ Union–Curia results to reach 13.9 percent. ACT has also risen but trails the front-runners, and Opportunity remains below the 5 percent threshold. These movements reflect ongoing volatility in minor-party support rather than decisive swings, with the two-month timeline leaving room for further adjustments before votes are cast.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedRelated
Will National Party win the second-most seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?
55%
Will Labour Party win the most seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?
56%
Will the National Party win 35-39 seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?
39%
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions