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icon for Mohammed bin Salman out as leader of Saudi Arabia by...?
Geopolitics·Mbs

Mohammed bin Salman out as leader of Saudi Arabia by...?

icon for Mohammed bin Salman out as leader of Saudi Arabia by...?
Geopolitics·Mbs

Mohammed bin Salman out as leader of Saudi Arabia by...?

$1,802,183 Vol.

Dec 31, 2026
Polymarket

$1,802,183 Vol.

Polymarket

December 31

$95,831 Vol.

5%

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia Mohammed bin Salman ceases to be leader of Saudi Arabia for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Mohammed bin Salman's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Mohammed bin Salman and the government of Saudi Arabia; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman continues to exercise centralized authority as Saudi Arabia’s de facto leader and Prime Minister, with King Salman’s August 2026 cabinet reconstitution retaining the existing structure under his chairmanship. This routine legal step followed four years of MBS-directed governance that has eliminated internal royal rivals, secured loyalty from security institutions, and advanced social and economic reforms under Vision 2030 despite recalibrations after early 2026 Iranian strikes on Saudi energy facilities. Recent diplomatic moves, including deepened defense ties with Pakistan and Turkey plus sustained U.S. engagement under President Trump, have reinforced his position. No credible challenges to his tenure have emerged in the past year, though the market resolution hinges on whether any sudden health, palace, or external event alters the current power consolidation before the specified cutoff.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia Mohammed bin Salman ceases to be leader of Saudi Arabia for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement of Mohammed bin Salman's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from Mohammed bin Salman and the government of Saudi Arabia; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve to “Yes” if Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia Mohammed bin Salman ceases to be leader of Saudi Arabia for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Mohammed bin Salman's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Mohammed bin Salman and the government of Saudi Arabia; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$1,802,183
End Date
Jan 1, 2027
Market Opened
Mar 27, 2026, 1:45 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia Mohammed bin Salman ceases to be leader of Saudi Arabia for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Mohammed bin Salman's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Mohammed bin Salman and the government of Saudi Arabia; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman continues to exercise centralized authority as Saudi Arabia’s de facto leader and Prime Minister, with King Salman’s August 2026 cabinet reconstitution retaining the existing structure under his chairmanship. This routine legal step followed four years of MBS-directed governance that has eliminated internal royal rivals, secured loyalty from security institutions, and advanced social and economic reforms under Vision 2030 despite recalibrations after early 2026 Iranian strikes on Saudi energy facilities. Recent diplomatic moves, including deepened defense ties with Pakistan and Turkey plus sustained U.S. engagement under President Trump, have reinforced his position. No credible challenges to his tenure have emerged in the past year, though the market resolution hinges on whether any sudden health, palace, or external event alters the current power consolidation before the specified cutoff.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia Mohammed bin Salman ceases to be leader of Saudi Arabia for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement of Mohammed bin Salman's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from Mohammed bin Salman and the government of Saudi Arabia; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve to “Yes” if Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia Mohammed bin Salman ceases to be leader of Saudi Arabia for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Mohammed bin Salman's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Mohammed bin Salman and the government of Saudi Arabia; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$1,802,183
End Date
Jan 1, 2027
Market Opened
Mar 27, 2026, 1:45 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Mohammed bin Salman out as leader of Saudi Arabia by...?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 2 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "December 31" at 5%, followed by "June 30" at 0%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 5¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 5% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Mohammed bin Salman out as leader of Saudi Arabia by...?" has generated $1.8 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Mar 27, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Mohammed bin Salman out as leader of Saudi Arabia by...?," browse the 2 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

This is a wide-open market. The current leader for "Mohammed bin Salman out as leader of Saudi Arabia by...?" is "December 31" at just 5%, with "June 30" close behind at 0%. With no outcome commanding a strong majority, traders see this as highly uncertain, which can present unique trading opportunities. These odds update in real-time, so bookmark this page to watch how the probabilities evolve.

The resolution rules for "Mohammed bin Salman out as leader of Saudi Arabia by...?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.