Current forecasts from multiple meteorological models indicate a daily minimum near 25–26°C for Guangzhou on September 6, 2026, consistent with the market’s leading 25°C outcome at 66% implied probability. Persistent cloud cover, high humidity near 80%, and scattered thunderstorms associated with seasonal monsoon patterns are limiting overnight radiative cooling and holding temperatures above the historical average low of 24.8°C. Light northerly winds and dew points around 25°C further support stabilization near this range, while model consensus shows limited downside risk below 24°C absent a stronger frontal passage. Updated guidance from regional agencies and the next model runs will refine resolution thresholds for the 24°C and 23°C contracts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Guangzhou on September 6?
Lowest temperature in Guangzhou on September 6?
23°C 64%
22°C 48%
24°C 36%
20°C or below 16%
NEW
NEW
Sep 6, 2026
20°C or below
16%
21°C
11%
22°C
48%
23°C
64%
24°C
36%
25°C
66%
26°C
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C or higher
<1%
23°C 64%
22°C 48%
24°C 36%
20°C or below 16%
NEW
NEW
Sep 6, 2026
20°C or below
$5 Vol.
16%
21°C
$15 Vol.
11%
22°C
$15 Vol.
48%
23°C
$72 Vol.
64%
24°C
$16 Vol.
36%
25°C
$305 Vol.
66%
26°C
$1,020 Vol.
<1%
27°C
$40 Vol.
<1%
28°C
$45 Vol.
<1%
29°C
$45 Vol.
<1%
30°C or higher
$50 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zggg
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecasts from multiple meteorological models indicate a daily minimum near 25–26°C for Guangzhou on September 6, 2026, consistent with the market’s leading 25°C outcome at 66% implied probability. Persistent cloud cover, high humidity near 80%, and scattered thunderstorms associated with seasonal monsoon patterns are limiting overnight radiative cooling and holding temperatures above the historical average low of 24.8°C. Light northerly winds and dew points around 25°C further support stabilization near this range, while model consensus shows limited downside risk below 24°C absent a stronger frontal passage. Updated guidance from regional agencies and the next model runs will refine resolution thresholds for the 24°C and 23°C contracts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zggg
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zggg
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 4, 2026, 12:31 AM ET
Volume
$1,628End Date
Sep 6, 2026Market Opened
Sep 4, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgggResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zggg
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecasts from multiple meteorological models indicate a daily minimum near 25–26°C for Guangzhou on September 6, 2026, consistent with the market’s leading 25°C outcome at 66% implied probability. Persistent cloud cover, high humidity near 80%, and scattered thunderstorms associated with seasonal monsoon patterns are limiting overnight radiative cooling and holding temperatures above the historical average low of 24.8°C. Light northerly winds and dew points around 25°C further support stabilization near this range, while model consensus shows limited downside risk below 24°C absent a stronger frontal passage. Updated guidance from regional agencies and the next model runs will refine resolution thresholds for the 24°C and 23°C contracts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zggg
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zggg
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$1,628End Date
Sep 6, 2026Market Opened
Sep 4, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgggResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current forecasts from multiple meteorological models indicate a daily minimum near 25–26°C for Guangzhou on September 6, 2026, consistent with the market’s leading 25°C outcome at 66% implied probability. Persistent cloud cover, high humidity near 80%, and scattered thunderstorms associated with seasonal monsoon patterns are limiting overnight radiative cooling and holding temperatures above the historical average low of 24.8°C. Light northerly winds and dew points around 25°C further support stabilization near this range, while model consensus shows limited downside risk below 24°C absent a stronger frontal passage. Updated guidance from regional agencies and the next model runs will refine resolution thresholds for the 24°C and 23°C contracts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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