The June 2026 U.S.-brokered trilateral framework agreement between Israel, Lebanon, and the United States ties any phased Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) redeployment from southern Lebanon—including areas north of the Litani River—to verifiable Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) control and Hezbollah disarmament, with no fixed timetable. Israel has implemented limited pilot zones for minor withdrawals while retaining its core security buffer south of the river and conducting ongoing operations, such as clearing Hezbollah tunnels near strategic ridges into early September 2026. Hezbollah has rejected the deal and disarmament requirements, sustaining risks of flare-ups. Trader assessments of near-term full withdrawal therefore hinge on measurable LAF progress against non-state armed groups and diplomatic follow-through in the Military Coordination Group.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedIsraeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by…?
Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by…?
$1,191,831 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
December 31
17%
$1,191,831 Vol.
December 31
$350,614 Vol.
17%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanese territory beyond the Litani River by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory beyond the Litani River, regardless of if some specified territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.The June 2026 U.S.-brokered trilateral framework agreement between Israel, Lebanon, and the United States ties any phased Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) redeployment from southern Lebanon—including areas north of the Litani River—to verifiable Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) control and Hezbollah disarmament, with no fixed timetable. Israel has implemented limited pilot zones for minor withdrawals while retaining its core security buffer south of the river and conducting ongoing operations, such as clearing Hezbollah tunnels near strategic ridges into early September 2026. Hezbollah has rejected the deal and disarmament requirements, sustaining risks of flare-ups. Trader assessments of near-term full withdrawal therefore hinge on measurable LAF progress against non-state armed groups and diplomatic follow-through in the Military Coordination Group.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanese territory beyond the Litani River by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory beyond the Litani River, regardless of if some specified territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory beyond the Litani River, regardless of if some specified territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.
Market Opened: Jun 22, 2026, 9:44 PM ET
Volume
$1,191,831End Date
Sep 1, 2026Market Opened
Jun 22, 2026, 9:44 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanese territory beyond the Litani River by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory beyond the Litani River, regardless of if some specified territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.The June 2026 U.S.-brokered trilateral framework agreement between Israel, Lebanon, and the United States ties any phased Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) redeployment from southern Lebanon—including areas north of the Litani River—to verifiable Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) control and Hezbollah disarmament, with no fixed timetable. Israel has implemented limited pilot zones for minor withdrawals while retaining its core security buffer south of the river and conducting ongoing operations, such as clearing Hezbollah tunnels near strategic ridges into early September 2026. Hezbollah has rejected the deal and disarmament requirements, sustaining risks of flare-ups. Trader assessments of near-term full withdrawal therefore hinge on measurable LAF progress against non-state armed groups and diplomatic follow-through in the Military Coordination Group.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanese territory beyond the Litani River by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory beyond the Litani River, regardless of if some specified territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory beyond the Litani River, regardless of if some specified territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.
Volume
$1,191,831End Date
Sep 1, 2026Market Opened
Jun 22, 2026, 9:44 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The June 2026 U.S.-brokered trilateral framework agreement between Israel, Lebanon, and the United States ties any phased Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) redeployment from southern Lebanon—including areas north of the Litani River—to verifiable Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) control and Hezbollah disarmament, with no fixed timetable. Israel has implemented limited pilot zones for minor withdrawals while retaining its core security buffer south of the river and conducting ongoing operations, such as clearing Hezbollah tunnels near strategic ridges into early September 2026. Hezbollah has rejected the deal and disarmament requirements, sustaining risks of flare-ups. Trader assessments of near-term full withdrawal therefore hinge on measurable LAF progress against non-state armed groups and diplomatic follow-through in the Military Coordination Group.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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