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icon for Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by…?

Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by…?

icon for Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by…?

Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by…?

$1,191,829 Vol.

Dec 31, 2026
Polymarket

$1,191,829 Vol.

Polymarket

December 31

$350,611 Vol.

17%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanese territory beyond the Litani River by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory beyond the Litani River, regardless of if some specified territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.**Israeli forces remain positioned in a security buffer zone in southern Lebanon under a June 2026 trilateral framework agreement with Lebanon and the United States.** The deal designates two limited pilot zones—one south of the Litani River outside the original buffer and a small area north of it—for phased, conditions-based redeployment once the Lebanese Armed Forces assume control and verifiable disarmament of non-state armed groups occurs. Israeli officials, including Prime Minister Netanyahu, have stated that broader withdrawals beyond the Litani depend on Hezbollah’s dismantlement rather than any fixed timetable, with the IDF retaining freedom of action in the core zone. Implementation of the pilots began in late June, with assessments indicating several weeks for Lebanese forces to prepare and deploy. Trader sentiment reflects uncertainty around verification processes, Lebanese army capacity, and any escalation or diplomatic follow-through that could expand or stall the sequenced process.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanese territory beyond the Litani River by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory beyond the Litani River, regardless of if some specified territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanese territory beyond the Litani River by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory beyond the Litani River, regardless of if some specified territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.
Volume
$1,191,829
End Date
Sep 1, 2026
Market Opened
Jun 22, 2026, 9:44 PM ET
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanese territory beyond the Litani River by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory beyond the Litani River, regardless of if some specified territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.**Israeli forces remain positioned in a security buffer zone in southern Lebanon under a June 2026 trilateral framework agreement with Lebanon and the United States.** The deal designates two limited pilot zones—one south of the Litani River outside the original buffer and a small area north of it—for phased, conditions-based redeployment once the Lebanese Armed Forces assume control and verifiable disarmament of non-state armed groups occurs. Israeli officials, including Prime Minister Netanyahu, have stated that broader withdrawals beyond the Litani depend on Hezbollah’s dismantlement rather than any fixed timetable, with the IDF retaining freedom of action in the core zone. Implementation of the pilots began in late June, with assessments indicating several weeks for Lebanese forces to prepare and deploy. Trader sentiment reflects uncertainty around verification processes, Lebanese army capacity, and any escalation or diplomatic follow-through that could expand or stall the sequenced process.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanese territory beyond the Litani River by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory beyond the Litani River, regardless of if some specified territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanese territory beyond the Litani River by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory beyond the Litani River, regardless of if some specified territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.
Volume
$1,191,829
End Date
Sep 1, 2026
Market Opened
Jun 22, 2026, 9:44 PM ET

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by…?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 5 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "December 31" at 17%, followed by "June 15" at 0%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 17¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 17% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by…?" has generated $1.2 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Jun 7, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by…?," browse the 5 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by…?" is "December 31" at 17%, meaning the market assigns a 17% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "June 15" at 0%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by…?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.