Recent polling averages project Shas, the Sephardi Haredi party led by Aryeh Deri, at roughly 7–9 Knesset seats in the October 27 election, reflecting its stable but pressured base amid coalition strains over military conscription exemptions for ultra-Orthodox men. Shas ministers resigned from the government in 2025 yet remained aligned with the Netanyahu bloc, while the party launched its campaign in August emphasizing religious education funding and social services. Voter turnout among traditional Mizrahi and Haredi communities, competition from United Torah Judaism and Religious Zionist lists, and any late shifts in the broader right-wing vote share remain key variables. Current trader pricing on 8–9 seats tracks these aggregates, with consolidation toward higher or lower bands hinging on mobilization efforts and threshold dynamics in the final weeks.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated8-9 37%
6-7 19%
10-11 16%
12+ 16%
NEW
NEW
Nov 30, 2026
<6
6%
6-7
19%
8-9
37%
10-11
16%
12+
16%
8-9 37%
6-7 19%
10-11 16%
12+ 16%
NEW
NEW
Nov 30, 2026
<6
$88 Vol.
6%
6-7
$557 Vol.
19%
8-9
$96 Vol.
37%
10-11
$102 Vol.
16%
12+
$42 Vol.
16%
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by Shas in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election.
If Shas contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Shas merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by Shas in this election.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).Recent polling averages project Shas, the Sephardi Haredi party led by Aryeh Deri, at roughly 7–9 Knesset seats in the October 27 election, reflecting its stable but pressured base amid coalition strains over military conscription exemptions for ultra-Orthodox men. Shas ministers resigned from the government in 2025 yet remained aligned with the Netanyahu bloc, while the party launched its campaign in August emphasizing religious education funding and social services. Voter turnout among traditional Mizrahi and Haredi communities, competition from United Torah Judaism and Religious Zionist lists, and any late shifts in the broader right-wing vote share remain key variables. Current trader pricing on 8–9 seats tracks these aggregates, with consolidation toward higher or lower bands hinging on mobilization efforts and threshold dynamics in the final weeks.
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by Shas in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election.
If Shas contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Shas merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by Shas in this election.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by Shas in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election.
If Shas contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Shas merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by Shas in this election.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).
Market Opened: Sep 4, 2026, 6:15 PM ET
Volume
$886End Date
Oct 27, 2026Market Opened
Sep 4, 2026, 6:15 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by Shas in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election.
If Shas contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Shas merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by Shas in this election.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).Recent polling averages project Shas, the Sephardi Haredi party led by Aryeh Deri, at roughly 7–9 Knesset seats in the October 27 election, reflecting its stable but pressured base amid coalition strains over military conscription exemptions for ultra-Orthodox men. Shas ministers resigned from the government in 2025 yet remained aligned with the Netanyahu bloc, while the party launched its campaign in August emphasizing religious education funding and social services. Voter turnout among traditional Mizrahi and Haredi communities, competition from United Torah Judaism and Religious Zionist lists, and any late shifts in the broader right-wing vote share remain key variables. Current trader pricing on 8–9 seats tracks these aggregates, with consolidation toward higher or lower bands hinging on mobilization efforts and threshold dynamics in the final weeks.
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by Shas in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election.
If Shas contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Shas merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by Shas in this election.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by Shas in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election.
If Shas contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Shas merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by Shas in this election.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).
Volume
$886End Date
Oct 27, 2026Market Opened
Sep 4, 2026, 6:15 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling averages project Shas, the Sephardi Haredi party led by Aryeh Deri, at roughly 7–9 Knesset seats in the October 27 election, reflecting its stable but pressured base amid coalition strains over military conscription exemptions for ultra-Orthodox men. Shas ministers resigned from the government in 2025 yet remained aligned with the Netanyahu bloc, while the party launched its campaign in August emphasizing religious education funding and social services. Voter turnout among traditional Mizrahi and Haredi communities, competition from United Torah Judaism and Religious Zionist lists, and any late shifts in the broader right-wing vote share remain key variables. Current trader pricing on 8–9 seats tracks these aggregates, with consolidation toward higher or lower bands hinging on mobilization efforts and threshold dynamics in the final weeks.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions