**Amcha Yisrael, the new right-wing party launched on August 25, 2026, by former IDF Brig. Gen. Ofer Winter with Yoseph Haddad in the second slot, has shown mixed but mostly threshold-crossing results in the first wave of post-launch polls ahead of the October 27 election.** Surveys from late August placed the party at 4 seats (Kan/Kantar), 5 seats (Maariv), 6 seats (Lazar/Walla), or as high as 8 seats (i24NEWS/Direct Polls), with support drawn primarily from Likud and Religious Zionism voters. Religious Zionism has fallen below the 3.25% threshold in several readings when Amcha Yisrael performs strongly. Winter has positioned the party on a more assertive security doctrine, broader IDF recruitment including Haredim, and willingness to join a broad Zionist coalition while setting conditions on draft legislation. The current market distribution—clustering on 4-6 seats with notable probability on fewer than 4—reflects this early polling range, the inherent volatility of small-party estimates, and the short window until list submissions and further surveys that could clarify whether the party consolidates or fades.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated4-6 43%
<4 37%
7-9 17%
10+ 6%
NEW
NEW
Nov 30, 2026
<4
37%
4-6
43%
7-9
17%
10+
6%
4-6 43%
<4 37%
7-9 17%
10+ 6%
NEW
NEW
Nov 30, 2026
<4
$0 Vol.
37%
4-6
$0 Vol.
43%
7-9
$20 Vol.
17%
10+
$275 Vol.
6%
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by Amcha Yisrael in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election.
If Amcha Yisrael contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Amcha Yisrael merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by Amcha Yisrael in this election.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).**Amcha Yisrael, the new right-wing party launched on August 25, 2026, by former IDF Brig. Gen. Ofer Winter with Yoseph Haddad in the second slot, has shown mixed but mostly threshold-crossing results in the first wave of post-launch polls ahead of the October 27 election.** Surveys from late August placed the party at 4 seats (Kan/Kantar), 5 seats (Maariv), 6 seats (Lazar/Walla), or as high as 8 seats (i24NEWS/Direct Polls), with support drawn primarily from Likud and Religious Zionism voters. Religious Zionism has fallen below the 3.25% threshold in several readings when Amcha Yisrael performs strongly.
Winter has positioned the party on a more assertive security doctrine, broader IDF recruitment including Haredim, and willingness to join a broad Zionist coalition while setting conditions on draft legislation. The current market distribution—clustering on 4-6 seats with notable probability on fewer than 4—reflects this early polling range, the inherent volatility of small-party estimates, and the short window until list submissions and further surveys that could clarify whether the party consolidates or fades.
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by Amcha Yisrael in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election.
If Amcha Yisrael contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Amcha Yisrael merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by Amcha Yisrael in this election.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by Amcha Yisrael in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election.
If Amcha Yisrael contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Amcha Yisrael merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by Amcha Yisrael in this election.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).
Market Opened: Sep 4, 2026, 6:13 PM ET
Volume
$295End Date
Oct 27, 2026Market Opened
Sep 4, 2026, 6:13 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by Amcha Yisrael in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election.
If Amcha Yisrael contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Amcha Yisrael merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by Amcha Yisrael in this election.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).**Amcha Yisrael, the new right-wing party launched on August 25, 2026, by former IDF Brig. Gen. Ofer Winter with Yoseph Haddad in the second slot, has shown mixed but mostly threshold-crossing results in the first wave of post-launch polls ahead of the October 27 election.** Surveys from late August placed the party at 4 seats (Kan/Kantar), 5 seats (Maariv), 6 seats (Lazar/Walla), or as high as 8 seats (i24NEWS/Direct Polls), with support drawn primarily from Likud and Religious Zionism voters. Religious Zionism has fallen below the 3.25% threshold in several readings when Amcha Yisrael performs strongly.
Winter has positioned the party on a more assertive security doctrine, broader IDF recruitment including Haredim, and willingness to join a broad Zionist coalition while setting conditions on draft legislation. The current market distribution—clustering on 4-6 seats with notable probability on fewer than 4—reflects this early polling range, the inherent volatility of small-party estimates, and the short window until list submissions and further surveys that could clarify whether the party consolidates or fades.
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by Amcha Yisrael in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election.
If Amcha Yisrael contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Amcha Yisrael merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by Amcha Yisrael in this election.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by Amcha Yisrael in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election.
If Amcha Yisrael contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Amcha Yisrael merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by Amcha Yisrael in this election.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).
Volume
$295End Date
Oct 27, 2026Market Opened
Sep 4, 2026, 6:13 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Amcha Yisrael, the new right-wing party launched on August 25, 2026, by former IDF Brig. Gen. Ofer Winter with Yoseph Haddad in the second slot, has shown mixed but mostly threshold-crossing results in the first wave of post-launch polls ahead of the October 27 election.** Surveys from late August placed the party at 4 seats (Kan/Kantar), 5 seats (Maariv), 6 seats (Lazar/Walla), or as high as 8 seats (i24NEWS/Direct Polls), with support drawn primarily from Likud and Religious Zionism voters. Religious Zionism has fallen below the 3.25% threshold in several readings when Amcha Yisrael performs strongly. Winter has positioned the party on a more assertive security doctrine, broader IDF recruitment including Haredim, and willingness to join a broad Zionist coalition while setting conditions on draft legislation. The current market distribution—clustering on 4-6 seats with notable probability on fewer than 4—reflects this early polling range, the inherent volatility of small-party estimates, and the short window until list submissions and further surveys that could clarify whether the party consolidates or fades.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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