Amcha Yisrael, the new right-wing party launched by former IDF Brig. Gen. Ofer Winter on August 25, 2026, sits near the 3.25% electoral threshold in recent polling, producing the close contest between sub-4 and 4-6 Knesset seats. Surveys from late August and early September show the party ranging from below the threshold to 4-8 seats, often drawing support from Likud, Otzma Yehudit, and Religious Zionism voters while including candidates such as Arab-Israeli activist Yoseph Haddad. This volatility stems from the party's emphasis on a preemptive security doctrine, expanded IDF service, and broad Zionist coalitions ahead of the October 27 election. Further polling shifts, final list submissions, or campaign developments on Haredi draft integration and right-bloc unity could widen the gap between these outcomes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated4-6 46%
<4 39%
7-9 17%
10+ 7%
NEW
NEW
Nov 30, 2026
<4
39%
4-6
46%
7-9
17%
10+
7%
4-6 46%
<4 39%
7-9 17%
10+ 7%
NEW
NEW
Nov 30, 2026
<4
$0 Vol.
39%
4-6
$0 Vol.
46%
7-9
$20 Vol.
17%
10+
$275 Vol.
7%
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by Amcha Yisrael in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election.
If Amcha Yisrael contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Amcha Yisrael merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by Amcha Yisrael in this election.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).Amcha Yisrael, the new right-wing party launched by former IDF Brig. Gen. Ofer Winter on August 25, 2026, sits near the 3.25% electoral threshold in recent polling, producing the close contest between sub-4 and 4-6 Knesset seats. Surveys from late August and early September show the party ranging from below the threshold to 4-8 seats, often drawing support from Likud, Otzma Yehudit, and Religious Zionism voters while including candidates such as Arab-Israeli activist Yoseph Haddad. This volatility stems from the party's emphasis on a preemptive security doctrine, expanded IDF service, and broad Zionist coalitions ahead of the October 27 election. Further polling shifts, final list submissions, or campaign developments on Haredi draft integration and right-bloc unity could widen the gap between these outcomes.
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by Amcha Yisrael in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election.
If Amcha Yisrael contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Amcha Yisrael merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by Amcha Yisrael in this election.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by Amcha Yisrael in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election.
If Amcha Yisrael contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Amcha Yisrael merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by Amcha Yisrael in this election.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).
Market Opened: Sep 4, 2026, 6:13 PM ET
Volume
$295End Date
Oct 27, 2026Market Opened
Sep 4, 2026, 6:13 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by Amcha Yisrael in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election.
If Amcha Yisrael contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Amcha Yisrael merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by Amcha Yisrael in this election.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).Amcha Yisrael, the new right-wing party launched by former IDF Brig. Gen. Ofer Winter on August 25, 2026, sits near the 3.25% electoral threshold in recent polling, producing the close contest between sub-4 and 4-6 Knesset seats. Surveys from late August and early September show the party ranging from below the threshold to 4-8 seats, often drawing support from Likud, Otzma Yehudit, and Religious Zionism voters while including candidates such as Arab-Israeli activist Yoseph Haddad. This volatility stems from the party's emphasis on a preemptive security doctrine, expanded IDF service, and broad Zionist coalitions ahead of the October 27 election. Further polling shifts, final list submissions, or campaign developments on Haredi draft integration and right-bloc unity could widen the gap between these outcomes.
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by Amcha Yisrael in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election.
If Amcha Yisrael contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Amcha Yisrael merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by Amcha Yisrael in this election.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by Amcha Yisrael in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election.
If Amcha Yisrael contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Amcha Yisrael merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by Amcha Yisrael in this election.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).
Volume
$295End Date
Oct 27, 2026Market Opened
Sep 4, 2026, 6:13 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Amcha Yisrael, the new right-wing party launched by former IDF Brig. Gen. Ofer Winter on August 25, 2026, sits near the 3.25% electoral threshold in recent polling, producing the close contest between sub-4 and 4-6 Knesset seats. Surveys from late August and early September show the party ranging from below the threshold to 4-8 seats, often drawing support from Likud, Otzma Yehudit, and Religious Zionism voters while including candidates such as Arab-Israeli activist Yoseph Haddad. This volatility stems from the party's emphasis on a preemptive security doctrine, expanded IDF service, and broad Zionist coalitions ahead of the October 27 election. Further polling shifts, final list submissions, or campaign developments on Haredi draft integration and right-bloc unity could widen the gap between these outcomes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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