Ongoing geopolitical tensions and elevated maritime security risks continue to constrain commercial transits through the Strait of Hormuz, with war-risk insurance premiums running multiples above baseline levels and recent attacks plus uncleared mines limiting viable routing. Live tracking data as of September 6 indicate roughly 20 crossings in the prior 24 hours against a pre-crisis daily baseline near 73, while hundreds of vessels remain anchored outside the chokepoint. These conditions underpin the market’s tight distribution, where the 28% probability on fewer than 20 weekly transits edges out the 20.5% on 25–29, reflecting trader consensus on sustained suppression from insurance costs and enforcement actions rather than full normalization. Key swing factors include any near-term demining progress or further incidents that could shift the narrow weekly range.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHow many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of September 7?
How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of September 7?
<20 28%
25-29 21%
20-24 19%
30-34 13%
NEW
NEW
Sep 13, 2026
<20
28%
20-24
19%
25-29
21%
30-34
13%
35-39
11%
40+
9%
<20 28%
25-29 21%
20-24 19%
30-34 13%
NEW
NEW
Sep 13, 2026
<20
$824 Vol.
28%
20-24
$237 Vol.
19%
25-29
$335 Vol.
21%
30-34
$217 Vol.
13%
35-39
$962 Vol.
11%
40+
$239 Vol.
9%
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from September 7, 2026, through September 13, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Ongoing geopolitical tensions and elevated maritime security risks continue to constrain commercial transits through the Strait of Hormuz, with war-risk insurance premiums running multiples above baseline levels and recent attacks plus uncleared mines limiting viable routing. Live tracking data as of September 6 indicate roughly 20 crossings in the prior 24 hours against a pre-crisis daily baseline near 73, while hundreds of vessels remain anchored outside the chokepoint. These conditions underpin the market’s tight distribution, where the 28% probability on fewer than 20 weekly transits edges out the 20.5% on 25–29, reflecting trader consensus on sustained suppression from insurance costs and enforcement actions rather than full normalization. Key swing factors include any near-term demining progress or further incidents that could shift the narrow weekly range.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from September 7, 2026, through September 13, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Market Opened: Sep 3, 2026, 10:25 AM ET
Volume
$2,814End Date
Sep 13, 2026Market Opened
Sep 3, 2026, 10:25 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from September 7, 2026, through September 13, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Ongoing geopolitical tensions and elevated maritime security risks continue to constrain commercial transits through the Strait of Hormuz, with war-risk insurance premiums running multiples above baseline levels and recent attacks plus uncleared mines limiting viable routing. Live tracking data as of September 6 indicate roughly 20 crossings in the prior 24 hours against a pre-crisis daily baseline near 73, while hundreds of vessels remain anchored outside the chokepoint. These conditions underpin the market’s tight distribution, where the 28% probability on fewer than 20 weekly transits edges out the 20.5% on 25–29, reflecting trader consensus on sustained suppression from insurance costs and enforcement actions rather than full normalization. Key swing factors include any near-term demining progress or further incidents that could shift the narrow weekly range.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from September 7, 2026, through September 13, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Volume
$2,814End Date
Sep 13, 2026Market Opened
Sep 3, 2026, 10:25 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Ongoing geopolitical tensions and elevated maritime security risks continue to constrain commercial transits through the Strait of Hormuz, with war-risk insurance premiums running multiples above baseline levels and recent attacks plus uncleared mines limiting viable routing. Live tracking data as of September 6 indicate roughly 20 crossings in the prior 24 hours against a pre-crisis daily baseline near 73, while hundreds of vessels remain anchored outside the chokepoint. These conditions underpin the market’s tight distribution, where the 28% probability on fewer than 20 weekly transits edges out the 20.5% on 25–29, reflecting trader consensus on sustained suppression from insurance costs and enforcement actions rather than full normalization. Key swing factors include any near-term demining progress or further incidents that could shift the narrow weekly range.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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