Traders assign an 83% probability to 1-100 Gold Cards sold in 2026 because the $1 million investor visa program, launched by executive order in September 2025 and opened for applications in December, has produced minimal finalized approvals through mid-2026. Government filings and congressional testimony show only one approval by April, roughly 338 applications received, and 165 processing fees paid amid lengthy vetting. A pending federal lawsuit challenges the administration’s authority to create the pathway through existing EB-1 and EB-2 categories without new legislation, creating uncertainty over processing speed and viability. Corporate sponsorship options and annual maintenance fees have not yet driven measurable uptake, while visa availability backlogs for certain nationalities further constrain near-term results. These factors have kept market-implied probabilities heavily weighted toward low volume for the calendar year.