Latest official forecasts from European and global models indicate a maximum temperature in Warsaw on September 9 most likely between 28–30°C, driven by southerly flow ahead of an approaching frontal system, clear to partly cloudy skies, and strong daytime insolation under high pressure. Ensemble guidance shows limited spread around this range, with slight cooling potential from increasing afternoon cloud cover or minor timing shifts in the wind shift to northwest. Historical September maxima in Warsaw average near 20°C, so current conditions represent well-above-normal warmth that supports the tight clustering of market-implied odds between 29°C and 30°C. Updated model runs and observational data ahead of peak heating will determine whether the outcome settles at the lower or upper end of this narrow band.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Warsaw on September 9?
Highest temperature in Warsaw on September 9?
29°C 34%
30°C 33%
28°C 15%
31°C 13%
NEW
NEW
Sep 9, 2026
25°C or below
1%
26°C
2%
27°C
6%
28°C
15%
29°C
34%
30°C
33%
31°C
13%
32°C
3%
33°C
1%
34°C
<1%
35°C or higher
<1%
29°C 34%
30°C 33%
28°C 15%
31°C 13%
NEW
NEW
Sep 9, 2026
25°C or below
$0 Vol.
1%
26°C
$30 Vol.
2%
27°C
$50 Vol.
6%
28°C
$425 Vol.
15%
29°C
$976 Vol.
34%
30°C
$224 Vol.
33%
31°C
$240 Vol.
13%
32°C
$53 Vol.
3%
33°C
$85 Vol.
1%
34°C
$562 Vol.
<1%
35°C or higher
$537 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest official forecasts from European and global models indicate a maximum temperature in Warsaw on September 9 most likely between 28–30°C, driven by southerly flow ahead of an approaching frontal system, clear to partly cloudy skies, and strong daytime insolation under high pressure. Ensemble guidance shows limited spread around this range, with slight cooling potential from increasing afternoon cloud cover or minor timing shifts in the wind shift to northwest. Historical September maxima in Warsaw average near 20°C, so current conditions represent well-above-normal warmth that supports the tight clustering of market-implied odds between 29°C and 30°C. Updated model runs and observational data ahead of peak heating will determine whether the outcome settles at the lower or upper end of this narrow band.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 7, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volume
$3,168End Date
Sep 9, 2026Market Opened
Sep 7, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwaResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest official forecasts from European and global models indicate a maximum temperature in Warsaw on September 9 most likely between 28–30°C, driven by southerly flow ahead of an approaching frontal system, clear to partly cloudy skies, and strong daytime insolation under high pressure. Ensemble guidance shows limited spread around this range, with slight cooling potential from increasing afternoon cloud cover or minor timing shifts in the wind shift to northwest. Historical September maxima in Warsaw average near 20°C, so current conditions represent well-above-normal warmth that supports the tight clustering of market-implied odds between 29°C and 30°C. Updated model runs and observational data ahead of peak heating will determine whether the outcome settles at the lower or upper end of this narrow band.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$3,168End Date
Sep 9, 2026Market Opened
Sep 7, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwaResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest official forecasts from European and global models indicate a maximum temperature in Warsaw on September 9 most likely between 28–30°C, driven by southerly flow ahead of an approaching frontal system, clear to partly cloudy skies, and strong daytime insolation under high pressure. Ensemble guidance shows limited spread around this range, with slight cooling potential from increasing afternoon cloud cover or minor timing shifts in the wind shift to northwest. Historical September maxima in Warsaw average near 20°C, so current conditions represent well-above-normal warmth that supports the tight clustering of market-implied odds between 29°C and 30°C. Updated model runs and observational data ahead of peak heating will determine whether the outcome settles at the lower or upper end of this narrow band.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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