**Recent numerical weather prediction models, including outputs from global ensembles, position the maximum temperature in Mexico City for September 7 around 23°C as the most probable outcome.** High-elevation effects at roughly 2,240 meters and widespread cloud cover during the rainy season are limiting daytime solar heating, while light winds and scattered showers further moderate peaks. Model consensus shows afternoon highs in the low-to-mid 20s°C, with some runs indicating brief clearing that could push readings to 24°C or above, consistent with the market's combined 81% implied probability for 23°C or higher. Updated runs from agencies such as CONAGUA and the National Hurricane Center-adjacent guidance will refine these values ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Mexico City on September 7?
Highest temperature in Mexico City on September 7?
23°C 56%
22°C 20%
24°C or higher 20%
21°C 5%
NEW
NEW
Sep 7, 2026
14°C or below
<1%
15°C
<1%
16°C
<1%
17°C
<1%
18°C
<1%
19°C
2%
20°C
3%
21°C
5%
22°C
20%
23°C
56%
24°C or higher
20%
23°C 56%
22°C 20%
24°C or higher 20%
21°C 5%
NEW
NEW
Sep 7, 2026
14°C or below
$135 Vol.
<1%
15°C
$135 Vol.
<1%
16°C
$135 Vol.
<1%
17°C
$156 Vol.
<1%
18°C
$80 Vol.
<1%
19°C
$169 Vol.
2%
20°C
$173 Vol.
3%
21°C
$249 Vol.
5%
22°C
$194 Vol.
20%
23°C
$1,009 Vol.
56%
24°C or higher
$632 Vol.
20%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Recent numerical weather prediction models, including outputs from global ensembles, position the maximum temperature in Mexico City for September 7 around 23°C as the most probable outcome.** High-elevation effects at roughly 2,240 meters and widespread cloud cover during the rainy season are limiting daytime solar heating, while light winds and scattered showers further moderate peaks. Model consensus shows afternoon highs in the low-to-mid 20s°C, with some runs indicating brief clearing that could push readings to 24°C or above, consistent with the market's combined 81% implied probability for 23°C or higher. Updated runs from agencies such as CONAGUA and the National Hurricane Center-adjacent guidance will refine these values ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 5, 2026, 8:56 AM ET
Volume
$3,066End Date
Sep 7, 2026Market Opened
Sep 5, 2026, 8:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmxResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Recent numerical weather prediction models, including outputs from global ensembles, position the maximum temperature in Mexico City for September 7 around 23°C as the most probable outcome.** High-elevation effects at roughly 2,240 meters and widespread cloud cover during the rainy season are limiting daytime solar heating, while light winds and scattered showers further moderate peaks. Model consensus shows afternoon highs in the low-to-mid 20s°C, with some runs indicating brief clearing that could push readings to 24°C or above, consistent with the market's combined 81% implied probability for 23°C or higher. Updated runs from agencies such as CONAGUA and the National Hurricane Center-adjacent guidance will refine these values ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$3,066End Date
Sep 7, 2026Market Opened
Sep 5, 2026, 8:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmxResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Recent numerical weather prediction models, including outputs from global ensembles, position the maximum temperature in Mexico City for September 7 around 23°C as the most probable outcome.** High-elevation effects at roughly 2,240 meters and widespread cloud cover during the rainy season are limiting daytime solar heating, while light winds and scattered showers further moderate peaks. Model consensus shows afternoon highs in the low-to-mid 20s°C, with some runs indicating brief clearing that could push readings to 24°C or above, consistent with the market's combined 81% implied probability for 23°C or higher. Updated runs from agencies such as CONAGUA and the National Hurricane Center-adjacent guidance will refine these values ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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