**Persistent cloud cover, widespread rain, and Mexico City’s high elevation are anchoring trader expectations for a modest daily maximum near 23–24°C on September 6, 2026.** September marks the core of the rainy season, when afternoon convective storms and thick cloud decks routinely limit solar heating and cap temperatures. Current official and model guidance (including runs from international centers) points to a peak around 19–23°C under overcast skies with widespread precipitation, aligning closely with the long-term September average high of roughly 23–24°C at the city’s ~2,240 m elevation. The market’s heaviest weighting on 24°C (41.5%) and 23°C (26.5%), followed by 25°C (20%), reflects this consensus: traders appear to view 23–24°C as the most likely outcome given the moisture and cloud suppression, while still assigning meaningful probability to a slightly sunnier or less rainy window allowing a brief spike to 25°C. Lower outcomes below 22°C carry negligible implied odds, consistent with the absence of any strong cooling signals in recent observations or model runs. Upcoming model updates and real-time surface observations from the Benito Juárez airport station will be the key near-term drivers of any shifts in these probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Mexico City on September 6?
Highest temperature in Mexico City on September 6?
24°C 44%
23°C 27%
25°C 21%
22°C 5%
NEW
$12,070 Vol.
NEW
$12,070 Vol.
Sep 6, 2026
16°C or below
<1%
17°C
<1%
18°C
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
5%
23°C
27%
24°C
44%
25°C
21%
26°C or higher
4%
24°C 44%
23°C 27%
25°C 21%
22°C 5%
NEW
$12,070 Vol.
NEW
$12,070 Vol.
Sep 6, 2026
16°C or below
$515 Vol.
<1%
17°C
$171 Vol.
<1%
18°C
$331 Vol.
<1%
19°C
$491 Vol.
<1%
20°C
$240 Vol.
<1%
21°C
$332 Vol.
<1%
22°C
$588 Vol.
5%
23°C
$2,346 Vol.
27%
24°C
$4,502 Vol.
44%
25°C
$1,511 Vol.
21%
26°C or higher
$1,042 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Persistent cloud cover, widespread rain, and Mexico City’s high elevation are anchoring trader expectations for a modest daily maximum near 23–24°C on September 6, 2026.**
September marks the core of the rainy season, when afternoon convective storms and thick cloud decks routinely limit solar heating and cap temperatures. Current official and model guidance (including runs from international centers) points to a peak around 19–23°C under overcast skies with widespread precipitation, aligning closely with the long-term September average high of roughly 23–24°C at the city’s ~2,240 m elevation.
The market’s heaviest weighting on 24°C (41.5%) and 23°C (26.5%), followed by 25°C (20%), reflects this consensus: traders appear to view 23–24°C as the most likely outcome given the moisture and cloud suppression, while still assigning meaningful probability to a slightly sunnier or less rainy window allowing a brief spike to 25°C. Lower outcomes below 22°C carry negligible implied odds, consistent with the absence of any strong cooling signals in recent observations or model runs.
Upcoming model updates and real-time surface observations from the Benito Juárez airport station will be the key near-term drivers of any shifts in these probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 4, 2026, 8:56 AM ET
Volume
$12,070End Date
Sep 6, 2026Market Opened
Sep 4, 2026, 8:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmxResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Persistent cloud cover, widespread rain, and Mexico City’s high elevation are anchoring trader expectations for a modest daily maximum near 23–24°C on September 6, 2026.**
September marks the core of the rainy season, when afternoon convective storms and thick cloud decks routinely limit solar heating and cap temperatures. Current official and model guidance (including runs from international centers) points to a peak around 19–23°C under overcast skies with widespread precipitation, aligning closely with the long-term September average high of roughly 23–24°C at the city’s ~2,240 m elevation.
The market’s heaviest weighting on 24°C (41.5%) and 23°C (26.5%), followed by 25°C (20%), reflects this consensus: traders appear to view 23–24°C as the most likely outcome given the moisture and cloud suppression, while still assigning meaningful probability to a slightly sunnier or less rainy window allowing a brief spike to 25°C. Lower outcomes below 22°C carry negligible implied odds, consistent with the absence of any strong cooling signals in recent observations or model runs.
Upcoming model updates and real-time surface observations from the Benito Juárez airport station will be the key near-term drivers of any shifts in these probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$12,070End Date
Sep 6, 2026Market Opened
Sep 4, 2026, 8:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmxResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Persistent cloud cover, widespread rain, and Mexico City’s high elevation are anchoring trader expectations for a modest daily maximum near 23–24°C on September 6, 2026.** September marks the core of the rainy season, when afternoon convective storms and thick cloud decks routinely limit solar heating and cap temperatures. Current official and model guidance (including runs from international centers) points to a peak around 19–23°C under overcast skies with widespread precipitation, aligning closely with the long-term September average high of roughly 23–24°C at the city’s ~2,240 m elevation. The market’s heaviest weighting on 24°C (41.5%) and 23°C (26.5%), followed by 25°C (20%), reflects this consensus: traders appear to view 23–24°C as the most likely outcome given the moisture and cloud suppression, while still assigning meaningful probability to a slightly sunnier or less rainy window allowing a brief spike to 25°C. Lower outcomes below 22°C carry negligible implied odds, consistent with the absence of any strong cooling signals in recent observations or model runs. Upcoming model updates and real-time surface observations from the Benito Juárez airport station will be the key near-term drivers of any shifts in these probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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