The recent passage of a new constitution via referendum on August 30 has introduced uncertainty ahead of Guinea-Bissau’s December 6 legislative elections, as it reduces the National People’s Assembly from 102 to 65 seats and consolidates electoral constituencies from 29 to 12 under a party-list proportional representation system. This structural shift, combined with the ongoing military-led transition following the November 2025 coup and annulled prior vote, has left the field fragmented among multiple parties with limited recent polling data or decisive alliances. Traders see FREPASNA and the Republican Platform “Nô Kumpu Guiné” as the closest contenders due to their historical bases and positioning within the transitional context, while smaller parties like PT, FLING, PS, and MUNDO-GB trail amid potential coalition dynamics. Developments such as formal candidate lists, opposition engagement, or junta statements on implementation could widen gaps before the vote.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedGuinea-Bissau National People's Assembly Election Winner
Guinea-Bissau National People's Assembly Election Winner
FLING 4.1%
Platforma Reupblicana “Nô Kumpu Guiné” 4.0%
FREPASNA 3.6%
PS 3.3%
$158,989 Vol.
$158,989 Vol.
Nov 22, 2025
FLING
4%
Platforma Reupblicana “Nô Kumpu Guiné”
17%
FREPASNA
19%
PS
3%
MUNDO-GB
3%
PT
6%
FLING 4.1%
Platforma Reupblicana “Nô Kumpu Guiné” 4.0%
FREPASNA 3.6%
PS 3.3%
$158,989 Vol.
$158,989 Vol.
Nov 22, 2025
FLING
$12,921 Vol.
4%
Platforma Reupblicana “Nô Kumpu Guiné”
$48,533 Vol.
17%
FREPASNA
$26,731 Vol.
19%
PS
$26,079 Vol.
3%
MUNDO-GB
$22,864 Vol.
3%
PT
$21,862 Vol.
6%
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Guinea-Bissau on November 23, 2025.
This market will resolve to the political party or coalition that wins the greatest number of seats in the National People's Assembly of Guinea-Bissau.
If voting in the National People's Assembly of Guinea-Bissau election does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will be resolved in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation or name appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the National People's Assembly.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Guinea-Bissau, specifically the National Election Commission (Comissão Nacional de Eleições, CNE) (http://www.cne.gw/).The recent passage of a new constitution via referendum on August 30 has introduced uncertainty ahead of Guinea-Bissau’s December 6 legislative elections, as it reduces the National People’s Assembly from 102 to 65 seats and consolidates electoral constituencies from 29 to 12 under a party-list proportional representation system. This structural shift, combined with the ongoing military-led transition following the November 2025 coup and annulled prior vote, has left the field fragmented among multiple parties with limited recent polling data or decisive alliances. Traders see FREPASNA and the Republican Platform “Nô Kumpu Guiné” as the closest contenders due to their historical bases and positioning within the transitional context, while smaller parties like PT, FLING, PS, and MUNDO-GB trail amid potential coalition dynamics. Developments such as formal candidate lists, opposition engagement, or junta statements on implementation could widen gaps before the vote.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Guinea-Bissau on November 23, 2025.
This market will resolve to the political party or coalition that wins the greatest number of seats in the National People's Assembly of Guinea-Bissau.
If voting in the National People's Assembly of Guinea-Bissau election does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will be resolved in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation or name appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the National People's Assembly.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Guinea-Bissau, specifically the National Election Commission (Comissão Nacional de Eleições, CNE) (http://www.cne.gw/).
This market will resolve to the political party or coalition that wins the greatest number of seats in the National People's Assembly of Guinea-Bissau.
If voting in the National People's Assembly of Guinea-Bissau election does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will be resolved in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation or name appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the National People's Assembly.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Guinea-Bissau, specifically the National Election Commission (Comissão Nacional de Eleições, CNE) (http://www.cne.gw/).
Market Opened: Nov 7, 2025, 11:46 AM ET
Volume
$158,989End Date
Nov 23, 2025Market Opened
Nov 7, 2025, 11:46 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Guinea-Bissau on November 23, 2025.
This market will resolve to the political party or coalition that wins the greatest number of seats in the National People's Assembly of Guinea-Bissau.
If voting in the National People's Assembly of Guinea-Bissau election does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will be resolved in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation or name appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the National People's Assembly.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Guinea-Bissau, specifically the National Election Commission (Comissão Nacional de Eleições, CNE) (http://www.cne.gw/).The recent passage of a new constitution via referendum on August 30 has introduced uncertainty ahead of Guinea-Bissau’s December 6 legislative elections, as it reduces the National People’s Assembly from 102 to 65 seats and consolidates electoral constituencies from 29 to 12 under a party-list proportional representation system. This structural shift, combined with the ongoing military-led transition following the November 2025 coup and annulled prior vote, has left the field fragmented among multiple parties with limited recent polling data or decisive alliances. Traders see FREPASNA and the Republican Platform “Nô Kumpu Guiné” as the closest contenders due to their historical bases and positioning within the transitional context, while smaller parties like PT, FLING, PS, and MUNDO-GB trail amid potential coalition dynamics. Developments such as formal candidate lists, opposition engagement, or junta statements on implementation could widen gaps before the vote.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Guinea-Bissau on November 23, 2025.
This market will resolve to the political party or coalition that wins the greatest number of seats in the National People's Assembly of Guinea-Bissau.
If voting in the National People's Assembly of Guinea-Bissau election does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will be resolved in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation or name appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the National People's Assembly.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Guinea-Bissau, specifically the National Election Commission (Comissão Nacional de Eleições, CNE) (http://www.cne.gw/).
This market will resolve to the political party or coalition that wins the greatest number of seats in the National People's Assembly of Guinea-Bissau.
If voting in the National People's Assembly of Guinea-Bissau election does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will be resolved in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation or name appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the National People's Assembly.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Guinea-Bissau, specifically the National Election Commission (Comissão Nacional de Eleições, CNE) (http://www.cne.gw/).
Volume
$158,989End Date
Nov 23, 2025Market Opened
Nov 7, 2025, 11:46 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The recent passage of a new constitution via referendum on August 30 has introduced uncertainty ahead of Guinea-Bissau’s December 6 legislative elections, as it reduces the National People’s Assembly from 102 to 65 seats and consolidates electoral constituencies from 29 to 12 under a party-list proportional representation system. This structural shift, combined with the ongoing military-led transition following the November 2025 coup and annulled prior vote, has left the field fragmented among multiple parties with limited recent polling data or decisive alliances. Traders see FREPASNA and the Republican Platform “Nô Kumpu Guiné” as the closest contenders due to their historical bases and positioning within the transitional context, while smaller parties like PT, FLING, PS, and MUNDO-GB trail amid potential coalition dynamics. Developments such as formal candidate lists, opposition engagement, or junta statements on implementation could widen gaps before the vote.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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