Trader sentiment on Federal Reserve policy actions from September through December reflects closely contested views, with Pause-Pause-Pause holding the highest implied probability at 25.5% amid uncertainty over inflation persistence and labor market resilience. Recent economic releases showing moderating price pressures alongside steady employment have kept multiple paths viable, including sequences with one or more hikes. Market-implied odds price in a cautious FOMC stance, balancing official guidance against incoming data on CPI, unemployment, and growth. Key upcoming catalysts include the September FOMC meeting and subsequent inflation and payroll reports that could shift expectations for rate adjustments measured in basis points.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedPause–Pause–Pause 26%
Hike–Pause–Pause 18%
Pause–Pause–Hike 13%
Pause–Hike–Pause 11.9%
$11,703 Vol.
$11,703 Vol.
Dec 9, 2026
Hike–Pause–Hike
8%
Hike–Pause–Pause
18%
Hike–Hike–Hike
5%
Hike–Hike–Pause
8%
Pause–Pause–Hike
13%
Pause–Pause–Pause
26%
Pause–Hike–Hike
11%
Pause–Hike–Pause
12%
Other
8%
Pause–Pause–Pause 26%
Hike–Pause–Pause 18%
Pause–Pause–Hike 13%
Pause–Hike–Pause 11.9%
$11,703 Vol.
$11,703 Vol.
Dec 9, 2026
Hike–Pause–Hike
$314 Vol.
8%
Hike–Pause–Pause
$489 Vol.
18%
Hike–Hike–Hike
$216 Vol.
5%
Hike–Hike–Pause
$429 Vol.
8%
Pause–Pause–Hike
$253 Vol.
13%
Pause–Pause–Pause
$9,180 Vol.
26%
Pause–Hike–Hike
$237 Vol.
11%
Pause–Hike–Pause
$336 Vol.
12%
Other
$249 Vol.
8%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmTrader sentiment on Federal Reserve policy actions from September through December reflects closely contested views, with Pause-Pause-Pause holding the highest implied probability at 25.5% amid uncertainty over inflation persistence and labor market resilience. Recent economic releases showing moderating price pressures alongside steady employment have kept multiple paths viable, including sequences with one or more hikes. Market-implied odds price in a cautious FOMC stance, balancing official guidance against incoming data on CPI, unemployment, and growth. Key upcoming catalysts include the September FOMC meeting and subsequent inflation and payroll reports that could shift expectations for rate adjustments measured in basis points.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Market Opened: Sep 2, 2026, 4:24 PM ET
Volume
$11,703End Date
Dec 9, 2026Market Opened
Sep 2, 2026, 4:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmTrader sentiment on Federal Reserve policy actions from September through December reflects closely contested views, with Pause-Pause-Pause holding the highest implied probability at 25.5% amid uncertainty over inflation persistence and labor market resilience. Recent economic releases showing moderating price pressures alongside steady employment have kept multiple paths viable, including sequences with one or more hikes. Market-implied odds price in a cautious FOMC stance, balancing official guidance against incoming data on CPI, unemployment, and growth. Key upcoming catalysts include the September FOMC meeting and subsequent inflation and payroll reports that could shift expectations for rate adjustments measured in basis points.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Volume
$11,703End Date
Dec 9, 2026Market Opened
Sep 2, 2026, 4:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader sentiment on Federal Reserve policy actions from September through December reflects closely contested views, with Pause-Pause-Pause holding the highest implied probability at 25.5% amid uncertainty over inflation persistence and labor market resilience. Recent economic releases showing moderating price pressures alongside steady employment have kept multiple paths viable, including sequences with one or more hikes. Market-implied odds price in a cautious FOMC stance, balancing official guidance against incoming data on CPI, unemployment, and growth. Key upcoming catalysts include the September FOMC meeting and subsequent inflation and payroll reports that could shift expectations for rate adjustments measured in basis points.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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