Incumbent Democrat Jim Himes faces Republican nominee Michael Goldstein and an independent in Connecticut’s 4th District general election on November 3. The district’s strong Democratic tilt, reflected in its Cook Partisan Voting Index and consistent “Solid Democratic” ratings from multiple forecasters, anchors trader consensus. Himes won reelection in 2024 by double digits, benefits from substantial fundraising, and advanced unopposed through the August primary. Goldstein, a repeat candidate, prevailed in the Republican primary but enters the general contest with limited resources and no recent polling suggesting a competitive path. Late developments such as a major scandal, health event, or unusually strong national Republican performance could theoretically shift the race, yet the current structure leaves little room for such outcomes to materialize before Election Day.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedCT-04 House Election Winner
CT-04 House Election Winner
$47,340 Vol.
$47,340 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Democratic Party
96%
Republican Party
4%
$47,340 Vol.
$47,340 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Democratic Party
$21,773 Vol.
96%
Republican Party
$25,567 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CT-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Jim Himes faces Republican nominee Michael Goldstein and an independent in Connecticut’s 4th District general election on November 3. The district’s strong Democratic tilt, reflected in its Cook Partisan Voting Index and consistent “Solid Democratic” ratings from multiple forecasters, anchors trader consensus. Himes won reelection in 2024 by double digits, benefits from substantial fundraising, and advanced unopposed through the August primary. Goldstein, a repeat candidate, prevailed in the Republican primary but enters the general contest with limited resources and no recent polling suggesting a competitive path. Late developments such as a major scandal, health event, or unusually strong national Republican performance could theoretically shift the race, yet the current structure leaves little room for such outcomes to materialize before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CT-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ET
Volume
$47,340End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CT-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Jim Himes faces Republican nominee Michael Goldstein and an independent in Connecticut’s 4th District general election on November 3. The district’s strong Democratic tilt, reflected in its Cook Partisan Voting Index and consistent “Solid Democratic” ratings from multiple forecasters, anchors trader consensus. Himes won reelection in 2024 by double digits, benefits from substantial fundraising, and advanced unopposed through the August primary. Goldstein, a repeat candidate, prevailed in the Republican primary but enters the general contest with limited resources and no recent polling suggesting a competitive path. Late developments such as a major scandal, health event, or unusually strong national Republican performance could theoretically shift the race, yet the current structure leaves little room for such outcomes to materialize before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CT-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$47,340End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Jim Himes faces Republican nominee Michael Goldstein and an independent in Connecticut’s 4th District general election on November 3. The district’s strong Democratic tilt, reflected in its Cook Partisan Voting Index and consistent “Solid Democratic” ratings from multiple forecasters, anchors trader consensus. Himes won reelection in 2024 by double digits, benefits from substantial fundraising, and advanced unopposed through the August primary. Goldstein, a repeat candidate, prevailed in the Republican primary but enters the general contest with limited resources and no recent polling suggesting a competitive path. Late developments such as a major scandal, health event, or unusually strong national Republican performance could theoretically shift the race, yet the current structure leaves little room for such outcomes to materialize before Election Day.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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