Recent polling for Berlin’s 20 September Abgeordnetenhaus election shows the CDU holding steady in the 18–21% range, placing its projected vote share squarely in the market’s leading 17–20% interval. Stefan Evers replaced Kai Wegner as lead candidate in July following the mayor’s withdrawal amid criticism over his handling of a January power outage, helping stabilize support after earlier declines from the 28% result in 2023. The race remains tight, with Die Linke frequently topping or tying surveys near 19–22%, AfD close behind, and the governing SPD trailing. Traders appear to view the current polling average and limited remaining campaign volatility as the dominant factors anchoring the highest-probability band.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated17-20% 46%
20-23% 28%
<17% 21%
23%+ 4.7%
$12,648 Vol.
$12,648 Vol.
Sep 20, 2026
<17%
21%
17-20%
46%
20-23%
28%
23%+
5%
17-20% 46%
20-23% 28%
<17% 21%
23%+ 4.7%
$12,648 Vol.
$12,648 Vol.
Sep 20, 2026
<17%
$3,847 Vol.
21%
17-20%
$4,529 Vol.
46%
20-23%
$2,419 Vol.
28%
23%+
$1,853 Vol.
5%
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by CDU in the specified election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).Recent polling for Berlin’s 20 September Abgeordnetenhaus election shows the CDU holding steady in the 18–21% range, placing its projected vote share squarely in the market’s leading 17–20% interval. Stefan Evers replaced Kai Wegner as lead candidate in July following the mayor’s withdrawal amid criticism over his handling of a January power outage, helping stabilize support after earlier declines from the 28% result in 2023. The race remains tight, with Die Linke frequently topping or tying surveys near 19–22%, AfD close behind, and the governing SPD trailing. Traders appear to view the current polling average and limited remaining campaign volatility as the dominant factors anchoring the highest-probability band.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by CDU in the specified election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by CDU in the specified election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
Market Opened: Aug 20, 2026, 2:21 PM ET
Volume
$12,648End Date
Sep 20, 2026Market Opened
Aug 20, 2026, 2:21 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by CDU in the specified election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).Recent polling for Berlin’s 20 September Abgeordnetenhaus election shows the CDU holding steady in the 18–21% range, placing its projected vote share squarely in the market’s leading 17–20% interval. Stefan Evers replaced Kai Wegner as lead candidate in July following the mayor’s withdrawal amid criticism over his handling of a January power outage, helping stabilize support after earlier declines from the 28% result in 2023. The race remains tight, with Die Linke frequently topping or tying surveys near 19–22%, AfD close behind, and the governing SPD trailing. Traders appear to view the current polling average and limited remaining campaign volatility as the dominant factors anchoring the highest-probability band.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by CDU in the specified election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by CDU in the specified election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
Volume
$12,648End Date
Sep 20, 2026Market Opened
Aug 20, 2026, 2:21 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling for Berlin’s 20 September Abgeordnetenhaus election shows the CDU holding steady in the 18–21% range, placing its projected vote share squarely in the market’s leading 17–20% interval. Stefan Evers replaced Kai Wegner as lead candidate in July following the mayor’s withdrawal amid criticism over his handling of a January power outage, helping stabilize support after earlier declines from the 28% result in 2023. The race remains tight, with Die Linke frequently topping or tying surveys near 19–22%, AfD close behind, and the governing SPD trailing. Traders appear to view the current polling average and limited remaining campaign volatility as the dominant factors anchoring the highest-probability band.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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