Strong El Niño conditions, which strengthened rapidly through mid-2026 and produced Niño 3.4 anomalies exceeding +2.7°C by early August, combined with the long-term anthropogenic warming trend, drove August 2026 global surface temperatures well above 1.29°C relative to the 1850–1900 baseline. Record daily sea-surface temperatures of 21.1°C outside polar regions, reported by Copernicus on August 22, along with widespread Northern Hemisphere heat extremes and preliminary analyses showing July already at 1.56°C, reinforced trader consensus that the monthly anomaly would exceed this threshold. UAH satellite data placed the lower-troposphere anomaly at +0.68°C versus the 1991–2020 mean, consistent with surface records trending similarly high. Only major downward revisions in final datasets or an unexpectedly rapid El Niño decay could alter this outcome before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedAugust 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
August 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
>1.29ºC 99.4%
1.25–1.29ºC <1%
1.20–1.24ºC <1%
<1.10ºC <1%
$14,173 Vol.
$14,173 Vol.
Jul 31, 2026
<1.10ºC
<1%
1.10–1.14ºC
<1%
1.15–1.19ºC
<1%
1.20–1.24ºC
1%
1.25–1.29ºC
1%
>1.29ºC
99%
>1.29ºC 99.4%
1.25–1.29ºC <1%
1.20–1.24ºC <1%
<1.10ºC <1%
$14,173 Vol.
$14,173 Vol.
Jul 31, 2026
<1.10ºC
$877 Vol.
<1%
1.10–1.14ºC
$999 Vol.
<1%
1.15–1.19ºC
$1,121 Vol.
<1%
1.20–1.24ºC
$2,099 Vol.
1%
1.25–1.29ºC
$2,783 Vol.
1%
>1.29ºC
$6,294 Vol.
99%
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Strong El Niño conditions, which strengthened rapidly through mid-2026 and produced Niño 3.4 anomalies exceeding +2.7°C by early August, combined with the long-term anthropogenic warming trend, drove August 2026 global surface temperatures well above 1.29°C relative to the 1850–1900 baseline. Record daily sea-surface temperatures of 21.1°C outside polar regions, reported by Copernicus on August 22, along with widespread Northern Hemisphere heat extremes and preliminary analyses showing July already at 1.56°C, reinforced trader consensus that the monthly anomaly would exceed this threshold. UAH satellite data placed the lower-troposphere anomaly at +0.68°C versus the 1991–2020 mean, consistent with surface records trending similarly high. Only major downward revisions in final datasets or an unexpectedly rapid El Niño decay could alter this outcome before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Market Opened: Jul 28, 2026, 1:48 PM ET
Volume
$14,173End Date
Sep 1, 2026Market Opened
Jul 28, 2026, 1:48 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Strong El Niño conditions, which strengthened rapidly through mid-2026 and produced Niño 3.4 anomalies exceeding +2.7°C by early August, combined with the long-term anthropogenic warming trend, drove August 2026 global surface temperatures well above 1.29°C relative to the 1850–1900 baseline. Record daily sea-surface temperatures of 21.1°C outside polar regions, reported by Copernicus on August 22, along with widespread Northern Hemisphere heat extremes and preliminary analyses showing July already at 1.56°C, reinforced trader consensus that the monthly anomaly would exceed this threshold. UAH satellite data placed the lower-troposphere anomaly at +0.68°C versus the 1991–2020 mean, consistent with surface records trending similarly high. Only major downward revisions in final datasets or an unexpectedly rapid El Niño decay could alter this outcome before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Volume
$14,173End Date
Sep 1, 2026Market Opened
Jul 28, 2026, 1:48 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Strong El Niño conditions, which strengthened rapidly through mid-2026 and produced Niño 3.4 anomalies exceeding +2.7°C by early August, combined with the long-term anthropogenic warming trend, drove August 2026 global surface temperatures well above 1.29°C relative to the 1850–1900 baseline. Record daily sea-surface temperatures of 21.1°C outside polar regions, reported by Copernicus on August 22, along with widespread Northern Hemisphere heat extremes and preliminary analyses showing July already at 1.56°C, reinforced trader consensus that the monthly anomaly would exceed this threshold. UAH satellite data placed the lower-troposphere anomaly at +0.68°C versus the 1991–2020 mean, consistent with surface records trending similarly high. Only major downward revisions in final datasets or an unexpectedly rapid El Niño decay could alter this outcome before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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