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icon for AI wins IMO gold medal in 2026?
Tech·AI

AI wins IMO gold medal in 2026?

icon for AI wins IMO gold medal in 2026?
Tech·AI

AI wins IMO gold medal in 2026?

Jan 1, 2027

Jan 1, 2027

26% chance
Polymarket

$10,341 Vol.

26% chance
Polymarket

$10,341 Vol.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any AI gets a gold medal in the International Math Olympiad between January 1, 2026 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source is the IMO Grand Challenge (https://imo-grand-challenge.github.io/) and the Artificial Intelligence Math Olympiad (AIMO, https://aimoprize.com/). If either source demonstrates that an AI has won the challenge/prize before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes".Recent progress in large language models has produced multiple gold-medal and perfect 42/42 scores on the official IMO 2026 problems released after the July contest in Shanghai, including officially graded perfect results from Huawei’s Celia and Xiaohongshu models plus independent verified runs by Claude Fable 5, GPT-5.6 Sol, and others. Open-weight systems such as DeepSeek V4 Flash have also cleared the 29-point gold threshold at very low cost. These advances explain why traders view frontier AI reasoning capabilities as having surpassed the required level. However, the market prices “No” at 74.5% because no AI has entered or been awarded a medal in the actual human-only IMO, and organizational rules plus the 2026 calendar leave little room for an official entry before year-end.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any AI gets a gold medal in the International Math Olympiad between January 1, 2026 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No."

The resolution source is the IMO Grand Challenge (https://imo-grand-challenge.github.io/) and the Artificial Intelligence Math Olympiad (AIMO, https://aimoprize.com/). If either source demonstrates that an AI has won the challenge/prize before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes".This market will resolve to "Yes" if any AI gets a gold medal in the International Math Olympiad between January 1, 2026 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source is the IMO Grand Challenge (https://imo-grand-challenge.github.io/) and the Artificial Intelligence Math Olympiad (AIMO, https://aimoprize.com/). If either source demonstrates that an AI has won the challenge/prize before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes".
Volume
$10,341
End Date
Jan 1, 2027
Market Opened
Nov 12, 2025, 5:08 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any AI gets a gold medal in the International Math Olympiad between January 1, 2026 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source is the IMO Grand Challenge (https://imo-grand-challenge.github.io/) and the Artificial Intelligence Math Olympiad (AIMO, https://aimoprize.com/). If either source demonstrates that an AI has won the challenge/prize before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes".Recent progress in large language models has produced multiple gold-medal and perfect 42/42 scores on the official IMO 2026 problems released after the July contest in Shanghai, including officially graded perfect results from Huawei’s Celia and Xiaohongshu models plus independent verified runs by Claude Fable 5, GPT-5.6 Sol, and others. Open-weight systems such as DeepSeek V4 Flash have also cleared the 29-point gold threshold at very low cost. These advances explain why traders view frontier AI reasoning capabilities as having surpassed the required level. However, the market prices “No” at 74.5% because no AI has entered or been awarded a medal in the actual human-only IMO, and organizational rules plus the 2026 calendar leave little room for an official entry before year-end.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any AI gets a gold medal in the International Math Olympiad between January 1, 2026 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No."

The resolution source is the IMO Grand Challenge (https://imo-grand-challenge.github.io/) and the Artificial Intelligence Math Olympiad (AIMO, https://aimoprize.com/). If either source demonstrates that an AI has won the challenge/prize before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes".This market will resolve to "Yes" if any AI gets a gold medal in the International Math Olympiad between January 1, 2026 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source is the IMO Grand Challenge (https://imo-grand-challenge.github.io/) and the Artificial Intelligence Math Olympiad (AIMO, https://aimoprize.com/). If either source demonstrates that an AI has won the challenge/prize before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes".
Volume
$10,341
End Date
Jan 1, 2027
Market Opened
Nov 12, 2025, 5:08 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...

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Frequently Asked Questions

"AI wins IMO gold medal in 2026?" is a prediction market on Polymarket where traders buy and sell "Yes" or "No" shares based on whether they believe this event will happen. The current crowd-sourced probability is 26% for "Yes." For example, if "Yes" is priced at 26¢, the market collectively assigns a 26% chance that this event will occur. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "AI wins IMO gold medal in 2026?" has generated $10.3K in total trading volume since the market launched on Nov 12, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "AI wins IMO gold medal in 2026?," simply choose whether you believe the answer is "Yes" or "No." Each side has a current price that reflects the market's implied probability. Enter your amount and click "Trade." If you buy "Yes" shares and the outcome resolves as "Yes," each share pays out $1. If it resolves as "No," your "Yes" shares pay $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current probability for "AI wins IMO gold medal in 2026?" is 26% for "Yes." This means the Polymarket crowd currently believes there is a 26% chance that this event will occur. These odds update in real-time based on actual trades, providing a continuously updated signal of what the market expects to happen.

The resolution rules for "AI wins IMO gold medal in 2026?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.