Trader consensus at 98.2% implied probability for August 2026 ranking as the hottest on record reflects record global sea-surface temperatures, which reached 21.1°C on August 22 according to Copernicus data—surpassing the prior daily maximum by 0.01°C despite occurring outside the typical March-April peak. This warmth stems from a rapidly intensifying El Niño event overlaying decades of anthropogenic ocean heating, with extra-polar SST anomalies remaining elevated throughout the month and contributing to elevated tropospheric temperatures, as seen in the UAH +0.68°C anomaly. Supporting regional signals include India’s warmest August since 1901 and extreme heat across parts of Europe and North America. Market-implied odds could shift if final blended surface analyses from agencies like NOAA or NASA revise the global mean downward due to data adjustments or if model consensus on the El Niño peak proves overstated, though current observational trends strongly favor a top ranking.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated2026 August 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record?
2026 August 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record?
1st hottest 98.2%
3rd hottest 1.8%
4th or lower <1%
2nd hottest <1%
$2,268 Vol.
$2,268 Vol.
Aug 30, 2026
1st hottest
98%
2nd hottest
<1%
3rd hottest
2%
4th or lower
1%
1st hottest 98.2%
3rd hottest 1.8%
4th or lower <1%
2nd hottest <1%
$2,268 Vol.
$2,268 Vol.
Aug 30, 2026
1st hottest
$764 Vol.
98%
2nd hottest
$563 Vol.
<1%
3rd hottest
$526 Vol.
2%
4th or lower
$415 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 versus the data points available for all other Augusts on record.
Note: If August 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by September 30, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.Trader consensus at 98.2% implied probability for August 2026 ranking as the hottest on record reflects record global sea-surface temperatures, which reached 21.1°C on August 22 according to Copernicus data—surpassing the prior daily maximum by 0.01°C despite occurring outside the typical March-April peak. This warmth stems from a rapidly intensifying El Niño event overlaying decades of anthropogenic ocean heating, with extra-polar SST anomalies remaining elevated throughout the month and contributing to elevated tropospheric temperatures, as seen in the UAH +0.68°C anomaly. Supporting regional signals include India’s warmest August since 1901 and extreme heat across parts of Europe and North America. Market-implied odds could shift if final blended surface analyses from agencies like NOAA or NASA revise the global mean downward due to data adjustments or if model consensus on the El Niño peak proves overstated, though current observational trends strongly favor a top ranking.
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 versus the data points available for all other Augusts on record.
Note: If August 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by September 30, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Note: If August 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by September 30, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Market Opened: Jul 28, 2026, 1:44 PM ET
Volume
$2,268End Date
Sep 1, 2026Market Opened
Jul 28, 2026, 1:44 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 versus the data points available for all other Augusts on record.
Note: If August 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by September 30, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.Trader consensus at 98.2% implied probability for August 2026 ranking as the hottest on record reflects record global sea-surface temperatures, which reached 21.1°C on August 22 according to Copernicus data—surpassing the prior daily maximum by 0.01°C despite occurring outside the typical March-April peak. This warmth stems from a rapidly intensifying El Niño event overlaying decades of anthropogenic ocean heating, with extra-polar SST anomalies remaining elevated throughout the month and contributing to elevated tropospheric temperatures, as seen in the UAH +0.68°C anomaly. Supporting regional signals include India’s warmest August since 1901 and extreme heat across parts of Europe and North America. Market-implied odds could shift if final blended surface analyses from agencies like NOAA or NASA revise the global mean downward due to data adjustments or if model consensus on the El Niño peak proves overstated, though current observational trends strongly favor a top ranking.
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 versus the data points available for all other Augusts on record.
Note: If August 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by September 30, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Note: If August 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by September 30, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Volume
$2,268End Date
Sep 1, 2026Market Opened
Jul 28, 2026, 1:44 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus at 98.2% implied probability for August 2026 ranking as the hottest on record reflects record global sea-surface temperatures, which reached 21.1°C on August 22 according to Copernicus data—surpassing the prior daily maximum by 0.01°C despite occurring outside the typical March-April peak. This warmth stems from a rapidly intensifying El Niño event overlaying decades of anthropogenic ocean heating, with extra-polar SST anomalies remaining elevated throughout the month and contributing to elevated tropospheric temperatures, as seen in the UAH +0.68°C anomaly. Supporting regional signals include India’s warmest August since 1901 and extreme heat across parts of Europe and North America. Market-implied odds could shift if final blended surface analyses from agencies like NOAA or NASA revise the global mean downward due to data adjustments or if model consensus on the El Niño peak proves overstated, though current observational trends strongly favor a top ranking.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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