Republican majorities in both chambers of Congress have produced no serious bipartisan movement toward articles of impeachment against President Trump, leaving the implied probability of removal by the end of 2026 near zero in trader assessments. House leadership has shown little appetite for proceedings absent broad consensus, while the Senate threshold of two-thirds remains a steep institutional barrier even if charges advanced. Historical patterns indicate that unified government typically shields presidents from successful impeachment efforts. Late-session shifts could still alter the outlook if Democrats gain House control in the November 2026 midterms or if unforeseen legal or ethical developments generate cross-aisle support before year-end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated2% chance
$1,015,758 Vol.
$1,015,758 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
Earn 3.25%
2% chance
$1,015,758 Vol.
$1,015,758 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
Earn 3.25%
This market will resolve to “Yes“ if the US House of Representatives by simple majority vote to approve or pass one or more articles of impeachment of President Donald Trump, between July 24, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will be used.Republican majorities in both chambers of Congress have produced no serious bipartisan movement toward articles of impeachment against President Trump, leaving the implied probability of removal by the end of 2026 near zero in trader assessments. House leadership has shown little appetite for proceedings absent broad consensus, while the Senate threshold of two-thirds remains a steep institutional barrier even if charges advanced. Historical patterns indicate that unified government typically shields presidents from successful impeachment efforts. Late-session shifts could still alter the outlook if Democrats gain House control in the November 2026 midterms or if unforeseen legal or ethical developments generate cross-aisle support before year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes“ if the US House of Representatives by simple majority vote to approve or pass one or more articles of impeachment of President Donald Trump, between July 24, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will be used.
Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will be used.
Market Opened: Jul 25, 2025, 2:47 PM ET
Volume
$1,015,758End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 25, 2025, 2:47 PM ETResolver
0x157Ce2d67...This market will resolve to “Yes“ if the US House of Representatives by simple majority vote to approve or pass one or more articles of impeachment of President Donald Trump, between July 24, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will be used.Republican majorities in both chambers of Congress have produced no serious bipartisan movement toward articles of impeachment against President Trump, leaving the implied probability of removal by the end of 2026 near zero in trader assessments. House leadership has shown little appetite for proceedings absent broad consensus, while the Senate threshold of two-thirds remains a steep institutional barrier even if charges advanced. Historical patterns indicate that unified government typically shields presidents from successful impeachment efforts. Late-session shifts could still alter the outlook if Democrats gain House control in the November 2026 midterms or if unforeseen legal or ethical developments generate cross-aisle support before year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes“ if the US House of Representatives by simple majority vote to approve or pass one or more articles of impeachment of President Donald Trump, between July 24, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will be used.
Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will be used.
Volume
$1,015,758End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 25, 2025, 2:47 PM ETResolver
0x157Ce2d67...Republican majorities in both chambers of Congress have produced no serious bipartisan movement toward articles of impeachment against President Trump, leaving the implied probability of removal by the end of 2026 near zero in trader assessments. House leadership has shown little appetite for proceedings absent broad consensus, while the Senate threshold of two-thirds remains a steep institutional barrier even if charges advanced. Historical patterns indicate that unified government typically shields presidents from successful impeachment efforts. Late-session shifts could still alter the outlook if Democrats gain House control in the November 2026 midterms or if unforeseen legal or ethical developments generate cross-aisle support before year-end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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