Traders assign a 96.4% probability that the United States will not annex any territory in 2026 because no formal acquisition has occurred despite repeated statements from President Trump favoring control of Greenland, potential Canadian statehood, or strategic sites such as the Panama Canal and Strait of Hormuz. Diplomatic talks with Denmark and Greenland remain active but face consistent rejection from Copenhagen and Nuuk, while congressional authorization, Senate treaty requirements, and public opposition to military or coercive measures create substantial procedural hurdles. With only months remaining in the year, the timeline for completing negotiations, legislation, and integration appears prohibitive. Late developments such as a sudden purchase agreement or de facto control declaration could still shift odds, though historical precedent and institutional checks make rapid resolution unlikely.