Nicolás Maduro has remained in U.S. federal custody at the Metropolitan Detention Center in Brooklyn since his January 3, 2026, capture by U.S. forces during a military operation in Caracas. He and his wife, Cilia Flores, face federal charges including narcoterrorism and drug trafficking, to which both have pleaded not guilty. Pretrial proceedings continue, with a June 2027 trial date set and recent hearings addressing defense motions on head-of-state immunity and the legality of the capture. Venezuela’s interim leadership under Delcy Rodríguez has engaged in U.S.-backed talks on oil arrangements, amnesty measures, and political reconciliation, though no agreements directly tied to Maduro’s release have been confirmed. Traders monitor court rulings, diplomatic signals, and any potential plea negotiations or health-related developments that could alter detention status before the scheduled trial.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$2,689,156 Vol.
Jan 30, 2026
December 31
7%
$2,689,156 Vol.
December 31
$293,707 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Nicolás Maduro is released from custody by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Nicolás Maduro is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes".
If Nicolás Maduro is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in them leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes".
Transporting Nicolás Maduro to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".
Temporary outings from prison for purposes such as testifying in court or before Congress, while still under the custody of correctional authorities, will not count as a release.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Nicolás Maduro has remained in U.S. federal custody at the Metropolitan Detention Center in Brooklyn since his January 3, 2026, capture by U.S. forces during a military operation in Caracas. He and his wife, Cilia Flores, face federal charges including narcoterrorism and drug trafficking, to which both have pleaded not guilty. Pretrial proceedings continue, with a June 2027 trial date set and recent hearings addressing defense motions on head-of-state immunity and the legality of the capture. Venezuela’s interim leadership under Delcy Rodríguez has engaged in U.S.-backed talks on oil arrangements, amnesty measures, and political reconciliation, though no agreements directly tied to Maduro’s release have been confirmed. Traders monitor court rulings, diplomatic signals, and any potential plea negotiations or health-related developments that could alter detention status before the scheduled trial.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Nicolás Maduro is released from custody by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Nicolás Maduro is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes".
If Nicolás Maduro is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in them leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes".
Transporting Nicolás Maduro to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".
Temporary outings from prison for purposes such as testifying in court or before Congress, while still under the custody of correctional authorities, will not count as a release.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If Nicolás Maduro is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes".
If Nicolás Maduro is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in them leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes".
Transporting Nicolás Maduro to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".
Temporary outings from prison for purposes such as testifying in court or before Congress, while still under the custody of correctional authorities, will not count as a release.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Jan 3, 2026, 10:24 AM ET
Volume
$2,689,156End Date
Jan 31, 2026Market Opened
Jan 3, 2026, 10:24 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Nicolás Maduro is released from custody by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Nicolás Maduro is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes".
If Nicolás Maduro is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in them leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes".
Transporting Nicolás Maduro to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".
Temporary outings from prison for purposes such as testifying in court or before Congress, while still under the custody of correctional authorities, will not count as a release.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Nicolás Maduro has remained in U.S. federal custody at the Metropolitan Detention Center in Brooklyn since his January 3, 2026, capture by U.S. forces during a military operation in Caracas. He and his wife, Cilia Flores, face federal charges including narcoterrorism and drug trafficking, to which both have pleaded not guilty. Pretrial proceedings continue, with a June 2027 trial date set and recent hearings addressing defense motions on head-of-state immunity and the legality of the capture. Venezuela’s interim leadership under Delcy Rodríguez has engaged in U.S.-backed talks on oil arrangements, amnesty measures, and political reconciliation, though no agreements directly tied to Maduro’s release have been confirmed. Traders monitor court rulings, diplomatic signals, and any potential plea negotiations or health-related developments that could alter detention status before the scheduled trial.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Nicolás Maduro is released from custody by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Nicolás Maduro is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes".
If Nicolás Maduro is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in them leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes".
Transporting Nicolás Maduro to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".
Temporary outings from prison for purposes such as testifying in court or before Congress, while still under the custody of correctional authorities, will not count as a release.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If Nicolás Maduro is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes".
If Nicolás Maduro is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in them leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes".
Transporting Nicolás Maduro to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".
Temporary outings from prison for purposes such as testifying in court or before Congress, while still under the custody of correctional authorities, will not count as a release.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$2,689,156End Date
Jan 31, 2026Market Opened
Jan 3, 2026, 10:24 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Nicolás Maduro has remained in U.S. federal custody at the Metropolitan Detention Center in Brooklyn since his January 3, 2026, capture by U.S. forces during a military operation in Caracas. He and his wife, Cilia Flores, face federal charges including narcoterrorism and drug trafficking, to which both have pleaded not guilty. Pretrial proceedings continue, with a June 2027 trial date set and recent hearings addressing defense motions on head-of-state immunity and the legality of the capture. Venezuela’s interim leadership under Delcy Rodríguez has engaged in U.S.-backed talks on oil arrangements, amnesty measures, and political reconciliation, though no agreements directly tied to Maduro’s release have been confirmed. Traders monitor court rulings, diplomatic signals, and any potential plea negotiations or health-related developments that could alter detention status before the scheduled trial.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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