Tesla's decision in its July Q2 update to drop Cybercab from the list of vehicles slated for volume production in 2026 has anchored trader skepticism, with only four months remaining for any retail sale. Early 2026 production at Gigafactory Texas began with a single unit in February and shifted to continuous output in April, yet the ramp remains deliberately slow amid new manufacturing processes and 4680 cell scaling, yielding just dozens of units in limited Austin robotaxi service. Recent NHTSA scrutiny of the steering-wheel-free design's certification, combined with Musk's emphasis on fleet deployment over immediate customer sales and a stated 2027 consumer target, reinforces barriers to completing a qualifying public transaction under $30,000 by year-end despite ongoing unsupervised FSD testing.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated16% chance
$55,206 Vol.
$55,206 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
16% chance
$55,206 Vol.
$55,206 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tesla sells at least one Cybercab vehicle to a qualifying retail customer for a base purchase price of $30,000 USD or less by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
“Cybercab” refers to the specific autonomous vehicle unveiled by Tesla in October 2024 under the Cybercab name, or a clearly designated successor product marketed by Tesla as the same vehicle model.
A qualifying retail customer must be a member of the general public purchasing the vehicle in a bona fide retail transaction under publicly available terms. Sales to employees, executives, family members, subsidiaries, internal entities, or for promotional, testing, or internal fleet purposes will not qualify.
The base purchase price refers to the vehicle’s listed retail price before taxes, registration fees, delivery fees, financing costs, or third-party incentives. Official Tesla discounts or manufacturer incentives count toward the base price.
Preorders, deposits, announced pricing targets, prototype deliveries, or internal fleet deployments will not qualify unless a completed retail sale meeting the above criteria occurs.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Tesla, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Tesla's decision in its July Q2 update to drop Cybercab from the list of vehicles slated for volume production in 2026 has anchored trader skepticism, with only four months remaining for any retail sale. Early 2026 production at Gigafactory Texas began with a single unit in February and shifted to continuous output in April, yet the ramp remains deliberately slow amid new manufacturing processes and 4680 cell scaling, yielding just dozens of units in limited Austin robotaxi service. Recent NHTSA scrutiny of the steering-wheel-free design's certification, combined with Musk's emphasis on fleet deployment over immediate customer sales and a stated 2027 consumer target, reinforces barriers to completing a qualifying public transaction under $30,000 by year-end despite ongoing unsupervised FSD testing.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tesla sells at least one Cybercab vehicle to a qualifying retail customer for a base purchase price of $30,000 USD or less by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
“Cybercab” refers to the specific autonomous vehicle unveiled by Tesla in October 2024 under the Cybercab name, or a clearly designated successor product marketed by Tesla as the same vehicle model.
A qualifying retail customer must be a member of the general public purchasing the vehicle in a bona fide retail transaction under publicly available terms. Sales to employees, executives, family members, subsidiaries, internal entities, or for promotional, testing, or internal fleet purposes will not qualify.
The base purchase price refers to the vehicle’s listed retail price before taxes, registration fees, delivery fees, financing costs, or third-party incentives. Official Tesla discounts or manufacturer incentives count toward the base price.
Preorders, deposits, announced pricing targets, prototype deliveries, or internal fleet deployments will not qualify unless a completed retail sale meeting the above criteria occurs.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Tesla, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
“Cybercab” refers to the specific autonomous vehicle unveiled by Tesla in October 2024 under the Cybercab name, or a clearly designated successor product marketed by Tesla as the same vehicle model.
A qualifying retail customer must be a member of the general public purchasing the vehicle in a bona fide retail transaction under publicly available terms. Sales to employees, executives, family members, subsidiaries, internal entities, or for promotional, testing, or internal fleet purposes will not qualify.
The base purchase price refers to the vehicle’s listed retail price before taxes, registration fees, delivery fees, financing costs, or third-party incentives. Official Tesla discounts or manufacturer incentives count toward the base price.
Preorders, deposits, announced pricing targets, prototype deliveries, or internal fleet deployments will not qualify unless a completed retail sale meeting the above criteria occurs.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Tesla, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Feb 17, 2026, 8:07 PM ET
Volume
$55,206End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Feb 17, 2026, 8:07 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tesla sells at least one Cybercab vehicle to a qualifying retail customer for a base purchase price of $30,000 USD or less by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
“Cybercab” refers to the specific autonomous vehicle unveiled by Tesla in October 2024 under the Cybercab name, or a clearly designated successor product marketed by Tesla as the same vehicle model.
A qualifying retail customer must be a member of the general public purchasing the vehicle in a bona fide retail transaction under publicly available terms. Sales to employees, executives, family members, subsidiaries, internal entities, or for promotional, testing, or internal fleet purposes will not qualify.
The base purchase price refers to the vehicle’s listed retail price before taxes, registration fees, delivery fees, financing costs, or third-party incentives. Official Tesla discounts or manufacturer incentives count toward the base price.
Preorders, deposits, announced pricing targets, prototype deliveries, or internal fleet deployments will not qualify unless a completed retail sale meeting the above criteria occurs.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Tesla, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Tesla's decision in its July Q2 update to drop Cybercab from the list of vehicles slated for volume production in 2026 has anchored trader skepticism, with only four months remaining for any retail sale. Early 2026 production at Gigafactory Texas began with a single unit in February and shifted to continuous output in April, yet the ramp remains deliberately slow amid new manufacturing processes and 4680 cell scaling, yielding just dozens of units in limited Austin robotaxi service. Recent NHTSA scrutiny of the steering-wheel-free design's certification, combined with Musk's emphasis on fleet deployment over immediate customer sales and a stated 2027 consumer target, reinforces barriers to completing a qualifying public transaction under $30,000 by year-end despite ongoing unsupervised FSD testing.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tesla sells at least one Cybercab vehicle to a qualifying retail customer for a base purchase price of $30,000 USD or less by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
“Cybercab” refers to the specific autonomous vehicle unveiled by Tesla in October 2024 under the Cybercab name, or a clearly designated successor product marketed by Tesla as the same vehicle model.
A qualifying retail customer must be a member of the general public purchasing the vehicle in a bona fide retail transaction under publicly available terms. Sales to employees, executives, family members, subsidiaries, internal entities, or for promotional, testing, or internal fleet purposes will not qualify.
The base purchase price refers to the vehicle’s listed retail price before taxes, registration fees, delivery fees, financing costs, or third-party incentives. Official Tesla discounts or manufacturer incentives count toward the base price.
Preorders, deposits, announced pricing targets, prototype deliveries, or internal fleet deployments will not qualify unless a completed retail sale meeting the above criteria occurs.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Tesla, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
“Cybercab” refers to the specific autonomous vehicle unveiled by Tesla in October 2024 under the Cybercab name, or a clearly designated successor product marketed by Tesla as the same vehicle model.
A qualifying retail customer must be a member of the general public purchasing the vehicle in a bona fide retail transaction under publicly available terms. Sales to employees, executives, family members, subsidiaries, internal entities, or for promotional, testing, or internal fleet purposes will not qualify.
The base purchase price refers to the vehicle’s listed retail price before taxes, registration fees, delivery fees, financing costs, or third-party incentives. Official Tesla discounts or manufacturer incentives count toward the base price.
Preorders, deposits, announced pricing targets, prototype deliveries, or internal fleet deployments will not qualify unless a completed retail sale meeting the above criteria occurs.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Tesla, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$55,206End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Feb 17, 2026, 8:07 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Tesla's decision in its July Q2 update to drop Cybercab from the list of vehicles slated for volume production in 2026 has anchored trader skepticism, with only four months remaining for any retail sale. Early 2026 production at Gigafactory Texas began with a single unit in February and shifted to continuous output in April, yet the ramp remains deliberately slow amid new manufacturing processes and 4680 cell scaling, yielding just dozens of units in limited Austin robotaxi service. Recent NHTSA scrutiny of the steering-wheel-free design's certification, combined with Musk's emphasis on fleet deployment over immediate customer sales and a stated 2027 consumer target, reinforces barriers to completing a qualifying public transaction under $30,000 by year-end despite ongoing unsupervised FSD testing.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions