Tesla’s limited progress toward unsupervised robotaxi operations in California underpins the 78.5% market-implied odds against a launch by year-end. The company holds only a basic DMV autonomous vehicle testing permit requiring a safety driver and operates Bay Area rides under a standard charter-party carrier permit equivalent to a limousine service, as confirmed by CPUC officials. It has logged zero qualifying autonomous test miles in the state for years and has not applied for driverless testing or commercial deployment permits needed for true SAE Level 3+ robotaxi service. California’s multi-stage process demands documented miles, safety data, and approvals that competitors like Waymo secured over years of incremental filings. The recent Cybercab rollout in Texas triggered a federal NHTSA audit query on certification, adding further scrutiny with just four months remaining.