Anthropic's Claude services have experienced multiple short-to-moderate outages in early September 2026, including elevated errors on Mythos 5.1, Fable 5.1, Opus 5, and Sonnet 5 models on September 2–3, consistent with the company's documented pattern of infrastructure strain as demand for its large language models grows faster than capacity. Trader consensus on 8–10 or 11–13 downtime days this month reflects this recurring issue across claude.ai, the API, Claude Code, and related tools, tempered by 90-day uptime figures near 99.4–99.8 percent and quick recoveries in recent incidents. Key differentiators include model-specific scaling challenges versus competitors' more stable deployments, with no major regulatory or launch catalysts immediately ahead to alter the frequency.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated8-10 39%
11-13 31%
5-7 25%
14+ 7%
NEW
NEW
Sep 30, 2026
<5
3%
5-7
25%
8-10
39%
11-13
31%
14+
7%
8-10 39%
11-13 31%
5-7 25%
14+ 7%
NEW
NEW
Sep 30, 2026
<5
$1,132 Vol.
3%
5-7
$2,038 Vol.
25%
8-10
$399 Vol.
39%
11-13
$527 Vol.
31%
14+
$382 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve according to the number of days in September 2026 during which Claude (claude.ai) experiences any downtime.
Claude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution.
A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a display color other than the grey color used for days that have not yet begun.
This market will resolve once the final day of the specified month is finalized. If the final day of the specified month has not been finalized by the end of the 7th calendar date after the specified month (ET), this market will resolve based on the days that have been finalized up to that time.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/).Anthropic's Claude services have experienced multiple short-to-moderate outages in early September 2026, including elevated errors on Mythos 5.1, Fable 5.1, Opus 5, and Sonnet 5 models on September 2–3, consistent with the company's documented pattern of infrastructure strain as demand for its large language models grows faster than capacity. Trader consensus on 8–10 or 11–13 downtime days this month reflects this recurring issue across claude.ai, the API, Claude Code, and related tools, tempered by 90-day uptime figures near 99.4–99.8 percent and quick recoveries in recent incidents. Key differentiators include model-specific scaling challenges versus competitors' more stable deployments, with no major regulatory or launch catalysts immediately ahead to alter the frequency.
This market will resolve according to the number of days in September 2026 during which Claude (claude.ai) experiences any downtime.
Claude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution.
A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a display color other than the grey color used for days that have not yet begun.
This market will resolve once the final day of the specified month is finalized. If the final day of the specified month has not been finalized by the end of the 7th calendar date after the specified month (ET), this market will resolve based on the days that have been finalized up to that time.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/).
Claude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution.
A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a display color other than the grey color used for days that have not yet begun.
This market will resolve once the final day of the specified month is finalized. If the final day of the specified month has not been finalized by the end of the 7th calendar date after the specified month (ET), this market will resolve based on the days that have been finalized up to that time.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/).
Market Opened: Aug 26, 2026, 6:10 PM ET
Volume
$4,478End Date
Sep 30, 2026Market Opened
Aug 26, 2026, 6:10 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of days in September 2026 during which Claude (claude.ai) experiences any downtime.
Claude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution.
A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a display color other than the grey color used for days that have not yet begun.
This market will resolve once the final day of the specified month is finalized. If the final day of the specified month has not been finalized by the end of the 7th calendar date after the specified month (ET), this market will resolve based on the days that have been finalized up to that time.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/).Anthropic's Claude services have experienced multiple short-to-moderate outages in early September 2026, including elevated errors on Mythos 5.1, Fable 5.1, Opus 5, and Sonnet 5 models on September 2–3, consistent with the company's documented pattern of infrastructure strain as demand for its large language models grows faster than capacity. Trader consensus on 8–10 or 11–13 downtime days this month reflects this recurring issue across claude.ai, the API, Claude Code, and related tools, tempered by 90-day uptime figures near 99.4–99.8 percent and quick recoveries in recent incidents. Key differentiators include model-specific scaling challenges versus competitors' more stable deployments, with no major regulatory or launch catalysts immediately ahead to alter the frequency.
This market will resolve according to the number of days in September 2026 during which Claude (claude.ai) experiences any downtime.
Claude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution.
A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a display color other than the grey color used for days that have not yet begun.
This market will resolve once the final day of the specified month is finalized. If the final day of the specified month has not been finalized by the end of the 7th calendar date after the specified month (ET), this market will resolve based on the days that have been finalized up to that time.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/).
Claude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution.
A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a display color other than the grey color used for days that have not yet begun.
This market will resolve once the final day of the specified month is finalized. If the final day of the specified month has not been finalized by the end of the 7th calendar date after the specified month (ET), this market will resolve based on the days that have been finalized up to that time.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/).
Volume
$4,478End Date
Sep 30, 2026Market Opened
Aug 26, 2026, 6:10 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Anthropic's Claude services have experienced multiple short-to-moderate outages in early September 2026, including elevated errors on Mythos 5.1, Fable 5.1, Opus 5, and Sonnet 5 models on September 2–3, consistent with the company's documented pattern of infrastructure strain as demand for its large language models grows faster than capacity. Trader consensus on 8–10 or 11–13 downtime days this month reflects this recurring issue across claude.ai, the API, Claude Code, and related tools, tempered by 90-day uptime figures near 99.4–99.8 percent and quick recoveries in recent incidents. Key differentiators include model-specific scaling challenges versus competitors' more stable deployments, with no major regulatory or launch catalysts immediately ahead to alter the frequency.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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