Recent abandonment of Stripe and Advent International’s roughly $53 billion bid for PayPal in late August 2026 underpins the 94.7% market-implied probability of no acquisition this year. PayPal’s board viewed the offer as undervaluing the company amid its turnaround under CEO Enrique Lores, including cost cuts and reorganization, while valuation gaps, financing commitments, and potential regulatory hurdles for combining two major payments processors proved insurmountable. PayPal shares, now trading near a $47 billion market cap with a forward P/E around 10, have reflected renewed focus on independent execution. A completed deal would require restarting negotiations and closing within four months, an outcome traders view as improbable given the recent impasse and Stripe’s separate $150–200 billion private valuation.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated5% chance
$90,274 Vol.
$90,274 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
5% chance
$90,274 Vol.
$90,274 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is officially announced that Paypal will be, has been, or is being acquired by or merged with Stripe by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying acquisition or acquisition announcement must include the acquisition of a controlling interest in Paypal by Stripe. A "controlling interest" is defined as an ownership stake sufficient to control the company's strategic decisions, typically more than 50% of equity, or equivalent control via voting rights, governance rights, board control, or other mechanisms. Transactions or investments that do not result in a transfer of controlling interest, such as minority stake purchases, will not count.
An announcement of a qualifying acquisition or merger by Paypal or Paypal and Stripe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether the announced acquisition/merger actually occurs.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Paypal and Stripe, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent abandonment of Stripe and Advent International’s roughly $53 billion bid for PayPal in late August 2026 underpins the 94.7% market-implied probability of no acquisition this year. PayPal’s board viewed the offer as undervaluing the company amid its turnaround under CEO Enrique Lores, including cost cuts and reorganization, while valuation gaps, financing commitments, and potential regulatory hurdles for combining two major payments processors proved insurmountable. PayPal shares, now trading near a $47 billion market cap with a forward P/E around 10, have reflected renewed focus on independent execution. A completed deal would require restarting negotiations and closing within four months, an outcome traders view as improbable given the recent impasse and Stripe’s separate $150–200 billion private valuation.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is officially announced that Paypal will be, has been, or is being acquired by or merged with Stripe by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying acquisition or acquisition announcement must include the acquisition of a controlling interest in Paypal by Stripe. A "controlling interest" is defined as an ownership stake sufficient to control the company's strategic decisions, typically more than 50% of equity, or equivalent control via voting rights, governance rights, board control, or other mechanisms. Transactions or investments that do not result in a transfer of controlling interest, such as minority stake purchases, will not count.
An announcement of a qualifying acquisition or merger by Paypal or Paypal and Stripe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether the announced acquisition/merger actually occurs.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Paypal and Stripe, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying acquisition or acquisition announcement must include the acquisition of a controlling interest in Paypal by Stripe. A "controlling interest" is defined as an ownership stake sufficient to control the company's strategic decisions, typically more than 50% of equity, or equivalent control via voting rights, governance rights, board control, or other mechanisms. Transactions or investments that do not result in a transfer of controlling interest, such as minority stake purchases, will not count.
An announcement of a qualifying acquisition or merger by Paypal or Paypal and Stripe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether the announced acquisition/merger actually occurs.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Paypal and Stripe, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Feb 24, 2026, 5:35 PM ET
Volume
$90,274End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Feb 24, 2026, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is officially announced that Paypal will be, has been, or is being acquired by or merged with Stripe by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying acquisition or acquisition announcement must include the acquisition of a controlling interest in Paypal by Stripe. A "controlling interest" is defined as an ownership stake sufficient to control the company's strategic decisions, typically more than 50% of equity, or equivalent control via voting rights, governance rights, board control, or other mechanisms. Transactions or investments that do not result in a transfer of controlling interest, such as minority stake purchases, will not count.
An announcement of a qualifying acquisition or merger by Paypal or Paypal and Stripe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether the announced acquisition/merger actually occurs.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Paypal and Stripe, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent abandonment of Stripe and Advent International’s roughly $53 billion bid for PayPal in late August 2026 underpins the 94.7% market-implied probability of no acquisition this year. PayPal’s board viewed the offer as undervaluing the company amid its turnaround under CEO Enrique Lores, including cost cuts and reorganization, while valuation gaps, financing commitments, and potential regulatory hurdles for combining two major payments processors proved insurmountable. PayPal shares, now trading near a $47 billion market cap with a forward P/E around 10, have reflected renewed focus on independent execution. A completed deal would require restarting negotiations and closing within four months, an outcome traders view as improbable given the recent impasse and Stripe’s separate $150–200 billion private valuation.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is officially announced that Paypal will be, has been, or is being acquired by or merged with Stripe by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying acquisition or acquisition announcement must include the acquisition of a controlling interest in Paypal by Stripe. A "controlling interest" is defined as an ownership stake sufficient to control the company's strategic decisions, typically more than 50% of equity, or equivalent control via voting rights, governance rights, board control, or other mechanisms. Transactions or investments that do not result in a transfer of controlling interest, such as minority stake purchases, will not count.
An announcement of a qualifying acquisition or merger by Paypal or Paypal and Stripe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether the announced acquisition/merger actually occurs.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Paypal and Stripe, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying acquisition or acquisition announcement must include the acquisition of a controlling interest in Paypal by Stripe. A "controlling interest" is defined as an ownership stake sufficient to control the company's strategic decisions, typically more than 50% of equity, or equivalent control via voting rights, governance rights, board control, or other mechanisms. Transactions or investments that do not result in a transfer of controlling interest, such as minority stake purchases, will not count.
An announcement of a qualifying acquisition or merger by Paypal or Paypal and Stripe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether the announced acquisition/merger actually occurs.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Paypal and Stripe, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$90,274End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Feb 24, 2026, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent abandonment of Stripe and Advent International’s roughly $53 billion bid for PayPal in late August 2026 underpins the 94.7% market-implied probability of no acquisition this year. PayPal’s board viewed the offer as undervaluing the company amid its turnaround under CEO Enrique Lores, including cost cuts and reorganization, while valuation gaps, financing commitments, and potential regulatory hurdles for combining two major payments processors proved insurmountable. PayPal shares, now trading near a $47 billion market cap with a forward P/E around 10, have reflected renewed focus on independent execution. A completed deal would require restarting negotiations and closing within four months, an outcome traders view as improbable given the recent impasse and Stripe’s separate $150–200 billion private valuation.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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