Russian forces continue offensive operations on the Orikhiv axis in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, employing glide bombs, drones, artillery, and small infantry groups to probe Ukrainian lines near settlements such as Novodanylivka, Mala Tokmachka, and Stepnohirsk. As of early September 2026, Ukrainian units reported repelling multiple attacks over recent days and maintaining control of key positions described as gateways to Orikhiv, while refuting Russian claims of prior captures. Earlier reports from August noted localized Russian gains west of the town and pressure on supply routes, though Ukrainian counter-moves limited deeper advances. The front remains several kilometers from Orikhiv itself, with Russian efforts focused on infiltration and incremental gains amid ongoing attrition.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedWill Russia capture Orikhiv by...?
Will Russia capture Orikhiv by...?
$195,484 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
September 30
5%
December 31
35%
$195,484 Vol.
September 30
$114,513 Vol.
5%
December 31
$80,971 Vol.
35%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the train station in Orikhiv (47.559860° N, 35.786219° E), Zaporizhzhia Oblast, by the specified date 11:59 PM ET.
The train station will be considered captured if any part of the icon is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.
If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once Russia captures the train station, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
Train station location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/1-c65ebdaaff.png
Train station location in Orikhiv: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/2-b63c422f94.png
Orikhiv Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/3-aee64f6cc6.png
Location on Google maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/DrzoGJft79yx9dxd9
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.Russian forces continue offensive operations on the Orikhiv axis in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, employing glide bombs, drones, artillery, and small infantry groups to probe Ukrainian lines near settlements such as Novodanylivka, Mala Tokmachka, and Stepnohirsk. As of early September 2026, Ukrainian units reported repelling multiple attacks over recent days and maintaining control of key positions described as gateways to Orikhiv, while refuting Russian claims of prior captures. Earlier reports from August noted localized Russian gains west of the town and pressure on supply routes, though Ukrainian counter-moves limited deeper advances. The front remains several kilometers from Orikhiv itself, with Russian efforts focused on infiltration and incremental gains amid ongoing attrition.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the train station in Orikhiv (47.559860° N, 35.786219° E), Zaporizhzhia Oblast, by the specified date 11:59 PM ET.
The train station will be considered captured if any part of the icon is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.
If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once Russia captures the train station, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
Train station location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/1-c65ebdaaff.png
Train station location in Orikhiv: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/2-b63c422f94.png
Orikhiv Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/3-aee64f6cc6.png
Location on Google maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/DrzoGJft79yx9dxd9
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
The train station will be considered captured if any part of the icon is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.
If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once Russia captures the train station, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
Train station location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/1-c65ebdaaff.png
Train station location in Orikhiv: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/2-b63c422f94.png
Orikhiv Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/3-aee64f6cc6.png
Location on Google maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/DrzoGJft79yx9dxd9
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
Market Opened: May 21, 2026, 1:38 PM ET
Volume
$195,484End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
May 21, 2026, 1:38 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the train station in Orikhiv (47.559860° N, 35.786219° E), Zaporizhzhia Oblast, by the specified date 11:59 PM ET.
The train station will be considered captured if any part of the icon is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.
If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once Russia captures the train station, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
Train station location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/1-c65ebdaaff.png
Train station location in Orikhiv: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/2-b63c422f94.png
Orikhiv Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/3-aee64f6cc6.png
Location on Google maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/DrzoGJft79yx9dxd9
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.Russian forces continue offensive operations on the Orikhiv axis in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, employing glide bombs, drones, artillery, and small infantry groups to probe Ukrainian lines near settlements such as Novodanylivka, Mala Tokmachka, and Stepnohirsk. As of early September 2026, Ukrainian units reported repelling multiple attacks over recent days and maintaining control of key positions described as gateways to Orikhiv, while refuting Russian claims of prior captures. Earlier reports from August noted localized Russian gains west of the town and pressure on supply routes, though Ukrainian counter-moves limited deeper advances. The front remains several kilometers from Orikhiv itself, with Russian efforts focused on infiltration and incremental gains amid ongoing attrition.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the train station in Orikhiv (47.559860° N, 35.786219° E), Zaporizhzhia Oblast, by the specified date 11:59 PM ET.
The train station will be considered captured if any part of the icon is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.
If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once Russia captures the train station, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
Train station location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/1-c65ebdaaff.png
Train station location in Orikhiv: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/2-b63c422f94.png
Orikhiv Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/3-aee64f6cc6.png
Location on Google maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/DrzoGJft79yx9dxd9
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
The train station will be considered captured if any part of the icon is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.
If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once Russia captures the train station, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
Train station location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/1-c65ebdaaff.png
Train station location in Orikhiv: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/2-b63c422f94.png
Orikhiv Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/3-aee64f6cc6.png
Location on Google maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/DrzoGJft79yx9dxd9
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
Volume
$195,484End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
May 21, 2026, 1:38 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Russian forces continue offensive operations on the Orikhiv axis in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, employing glide bombs, drones, artillery, and small infantry groups to probe Ukrainian lines near settlements such as Novodanylivka, Mala Tokmachka, and Stepnohirsk. As of early September 2026, Ukrainian units reported repelling multiple attacks over recent days and maintaining control of key positions described as gateways to Orikhiv, while refuting Russian claims of prior captures. Earlier reports from August noted localized Russian gains west of the town and pressure on supply routes, though Ukrainian counter-moves limited deeper advances. The front remains several kilometers from Orikhiv itself, with Russian efforts focused on infiltration and incremental gains amid ongoing attrition.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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