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icon for Will Banksy create a new mural or street artwork by December 31?

Will Banksy create a new mural or street artwork by December 31?

icon for Will Banksy create a new mural or street artwork by December 31?

Will Banksy create a new mural or street artwork by December 31?

69% chance
Polymarket
NEW
69% chance
Polymarket
NEW
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Banksy authenticates a new mural or outdoor street artwork between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Only works created between market creation and December 31, 2026 will qualify. Artworks created before this market's timeframe but revealed or posted within this market's timeframe will not qualify. A qualifying mural or street artwork must be outdoors on a structure or surface other than a canvas. Paintings on canvases or other surfaces designed for art, such as paper or board, will not qualify. This market will resolve according to confirmation from official Banksy channels including his official Instagram account (@banksy) or official website (banksy.co.uk). Authentication from third-party reporting, gallery attribution, or social media speculation will not be sufficient to resolve this market.Banksy’s consistent output of verified street interventions supports the 69% market-implied odds for a new mural or artwork by year-end. The artist confirmed a statue installation in London’s Waterloo Place in April 2026 and earlier pieces including a December 2025 stargazing mural and a September 2025 Royal Courts of Justice work, demonstrating an ongoing pace of public releases often aligned with current events. With roughly four months remaining, traders appear to factor in his history of sporadic but recurring activity and the high visibility of his Instagram announcements. Key upcoming catalysts include potential responses to unfolding news cycles and any fresh social-media posts that could signal imminent drops before the December 31 deadline.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Banksy authenticates a new mural or outdoor street artwork between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Only works created between market creation and December 31, 2026 will qualify. Artworks created before this market's timeframe but revealed or posted within this market's timeframe will not qualify.

A qualifying mural or street artwork must be outdoors on a structure or surface other than a canvas. Paintings on canvases or other surfaces designed for art, such as paper or board, will not qualify.

This market will resolve according to confirmation from official Banksy channels including his official Instagram account (@banksy) or official website (banksy.co.uk). Authentication from third-party reporting, gallery attribution, or social media speculation will not be sufficient to resolve this market.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Banksy authenticates a new mural or outdoor street artwork between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Only works created between market creation and December 31, 2026 will qualify. Artworks created before this market's timeframe but revealed or posted within this market's timeframe will not qualify. A qualifying mural or street artwork must be outdoors on a structure or surface other than a canvas. Paintings on canvases or other surfaces designed for art, such as paper or board, will not qualify. This market will resolve according to confirmation from official Banksy channels including his official Instagram account (@banksy) or official website (banksy.co.uk). Authentication from third-party reporting, gallery attribution, or social media speculation will not be sufficient to resolve this market.
Volume
$2,786
End Date
Jan 1, 2027
Market Opened
Jun 1, 2026, 3:43 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Banksy authenticates a new mural or outdoor street artwork between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Only works created between market creation and December 31, 2026 will qualify. Artworks created before this market's timeframe but revealed or posted within this market's timeframe will not qualify. A qualifying mural or street artwork must be outdoors on a structure or surface other than a canvas. Paintings on canvases or other surfaces designed for art, such as paper or board, will not qualify. This market will resolve according to confirmation from official Banksy channels including his official Instagram account (@banksy) or official website (banksy.co.uk). Authentication from third-party reporting, gallery attribution, or social media speculation will not be sufficient to resolve this market.Banksy’s consistent output of verified street interventions supports the 69% market-implied odds for a new mural or artwork by year-end. The artist confirmed a statue installation in London’s Waterloo Place in April 2026 and earlier pieces including a December 2025 stargazing mural and a September 2025 Royal Courts of Justice work, demonstrating an ongoing pace of public releases often aligned with current events. With roughly four months remaining, traders appear to factor in his history of sporadic but recurring activity and the high visibility of his Instagram announcements. Key upcoming catalysts include potential responses to unfolding news cycles and any fresh social-media posts that could signal imminent drops before the December 31 deadline.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Banksy authenticates a new mural or outdoor street artwork between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Only works created between market creation and December 31, 2026 will qualify. Artworks created before this market's timeframe but revealed or posted within this market's timeframe will not qualify.

A qualifying mural or street artwork must be outdoors on a structure or surface other than a canvas. Paintings on canvases or other surfaces designed for art, such as paper or board, will not qualify.

This market will resolve according to confirmation from official Banksy channels including his official Instagram account (@banksy) or official website (banksy.co.uk). Authentication from third-party reporting, gallery attribution, or social media speculation will not be sufficient to resolve this market.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Banksy authenticates a new mural or outdoor street artwork between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Only works created between market creation and December 31, 2026 will qualify. Artworks created before this market's timeframe but revealed or posted within this market's timeframe will not qualify. A qualifying mural or street artwork must be outdoors on a structure or surface other than a canvas. Paintings on canvases or other surfaces designed for art, such as paper or board, will not qualify. This market will resolve according to confirmation from official Banksy channels including his official Instagram account (@banksy) or official website (banksy.co.uk). Authentication from third-party reporting, gallery attribution, or social media speculation will not be sufficient to resolve this market.
Volume
$2,786
End Date
Jan 1, 2027
Market Opened
Jun 1, 2026, 3:43 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Will Banksy create a new mural or street artwork by December 31?" is a prediction market on Polymarket where traders buy and sell "Yes" or "No" shares based on whether they believe this event will happen. The current crowd-sourced probability is 69% for "Yes." For example, if "Yes" is priced at 69¢, the market collectively assigns a 69% chance that this event will occur. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Will Banksy create a new mural or street artwork by December 31?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Jun 1, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Will Banksy create a new mural or street artwork by December 31?," simply choose whether you believe the answer is "Yes" or "No." Each side has a current price that reflects the market's implied probability. Enter your amount and click "Trade." If you buy "Yes" shares and the outcome resolves as "Yes," each share pays out $1. If it resolves as "No," your "Yes" shares pay $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current probability for "Will Banksy create a new mural or street artwork by December 31?" is 69% for "Yes." This means the Polymarket crowd currently believes there is a 69% chance that this event will occur. These odds update in real-time based on actual trades, providing a continuously updated signal of what the market expects to happen.

The resolution rules for "Will Banksy create a new mural or street artwork by December 31?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.