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icon for Will Banksy post to Instagram by September 30?

Will Banksy post to Instagram by September 30?

icon for Will Banksy post to Instagram by September 30?

Will Banksy post to Instagram by September 30?

30% chance
Polymarket
NEW
30% chance
Polymarket
NEW
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the official Banksy Instagram account (@banksy) publishes a new post between market creation and September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Qualifying content includes only feed posts (single image, carousel, or video). Comments, replies, Notes, direct messages, stories, live broadcasts, profile picture changes, bio or link changes, and edits to previously published content will not qualify. Posts will qualify regardless of later deletion. Content published before market creation will not qualify, including previously published content that is unarchived, restored, or otherwise reappears on the account within this market's timeframe. The resolution source for this market will be content publicly visible on the official Banksy Instagram account (@banksy).**Banksy’s official Instagram (@banksy) serves mainly as a verification tool for new street works rather than a regular feed, leading traders to price in a high likelihood of continued silence through September 30.** The account’s 14.1 million followers see posts only when the anonymous artist authenticates fresh murals or installations, typically tied to timely political or cultural moments. Recent months have followed the familiar pattern of extended quiet periods after earlier 2026 pieces, with no confirmed new release or high-profile drop emerging in late August or early September 2026 to force an authentication post. With roughly 25 days remaining, the absence of a fresh catalyst—such as a London mural, UK protest response, or major political flashpoint—supports the market’s lean toward “No.” Any surprise street-art intervention or timely news event could still prompt a rapid post and shift sentiment, but current momentum favors another gap before the deadline.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the official Banksy Instagram account (@banksy) publishes a new post between market creation and September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Qualifying content includes only feed posts (single image, carousel, or video). Comments, replies, Notes, direct messages, stories, live broadcasts, profile picture changes, bio or link changes, and edits to previously published content will not qualify.

Posts will qualify regardless of later deletion.

Content published before market creation will not qualify, including previously published content that is unarchived, restored, or otherwise reappears on the account within this market's timeframe.

The resolution source for this market will be content publicly visible on the official Banksy Instagram account (@banksy).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the official Banksy Instagram account (@banksy) publishes a new post between market creation and September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Qualifying content includes only feed posts (single image, carousel, or video). Comments, replies, Notes, direct messages, stories, live broadcasts, profile picture changes, bio or link changes, and edits to previously published content will not qualify. Posts will qualify regardless of later deletion. Content published before market creation will not qualify, including previously published content that is unarchived, restored, or otherwise reappears on the account within this market's timeframe. The resolution source for this market will be content publicly visible on the official Banksy Instagram account (@banksy).
Volume
$414
End Date
Sep 30, 2026
Market Opened
Sep 2, 2026, 12:12 PM ET
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the official Banksy Instagram account (@banksy) publishes a new post between market creation and September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Qualifying content includes only feed posts (single image, carousel, or video). Comments, replies, Notes, direct messages, stories, live broadcasts, profile picture changes, bio or link changes, and edits to previously published content will not qualify. Posts will qualify regardless of later deletion. Content published before market creation will not qualify, including previously published content that is unarchived, restored, or otherwise reappears on the account within this market's timeframe. The resolution source for this market will be content publicly visible on the official Banksy Instagram account (@banksy).**Banksy’s official Instagram (@banksy) serves mainly as a verification tool for new street works rather than a regular feed, leading traders to price in a high likelihood of continued silence through September 30.** The account’s 14.1 million followers see posts only when the anonymous artist authenticates fresh murals or installations, typically tied to timely political or cultural moments. Recent months have followed the familiar pattern of extended quiet periods after earlier 2026 pieces, with no confirmed new release or high-profile drop emerging in late August or early September 2026 to force an authentication post. With roughly 25 days remaining, the absence of a fresh catalyst—such as a London mural, UK protest response, or major political flashpoint—supports the market’s lean toward “No.” Any surprise street-art intervention or timely news event could still prompt a rapid post and shift sentiment, but current momentum favors another gap before the deadline.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the official Banksy Instagram account (@banksy) publishes a new post between market creation and September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Qualifying content includes only feed posts (single image, carousel, or video). Comments, replies, Notes, direct messages, stories, live broadcasts, profile picture changes, bio or link changes, and edits to previously published content will not qualify.

Posts will qualify regardless of later deletion.

Content published before market creation will not qualify, including previously published content that is unarchived, restored, or otherwise reappears on the account within this market's timeframe.

The resolution source for this market will be content publicly visible on the official Banksy Instagram account (@banksy).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the official Banksy Instagram account (@banksy) publishes a new post between market creation and September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Qualifying content includes only feed posts (single image, carousel, or video). Comments, replies, Notes, direct messages, stories, live broadcasts, profile picture changes, bio or link changes, and edits to previously published content will not qualify. Posts will qualify regardless of later deletion. Content published before market creation will not qualify, including previously published content that is unarchived, restored, or otherwise reappears on the account within this market's timeframe. The resolution source for this market will be content publicly visible on the official Banksy Instagram account (@banksy).
Volume
$414
End Date
Sep 30, 2026
Market Opened
Sep 2, 2026, 12:12 PM ET

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Will Banksy post to Instagram by September 30?" is a prediction market on Polymarket where traders buy and sell "Yes" or "No" shares based on whether they believe this event will happen. The current crowd-sourced probability is 30% for "Yes." For example, if "Yes" is priced at 30¢, the market collectively assigns a 30% chance that this event will occur. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Will Banksy post to Instagram by September 30?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Sep 2, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Will Banksy post to Instagram by September 30?," simply choose whether you believe the answer is "Yes" or "No." Each side has a current price that reflects the market's implied probability. Enter your amount and click "Trade." If you buy "Yes" shares and the outcome resolves as "Yes," each share pays out $1. If it resolves as "No," your "Yes" shares pay $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current probability for "Will Banksy post to Instagram by September 30?" is 30% for "Yes." This means the Polymarket crowd currently believes there is a 30% chance that this event will occur. These odds update in real-time based on actual trades, providing a continuously updated signal of what the market expects to happen.

The resolution rules for "Will Banksy post to Instagram by September 30?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.