Skip to main content

To trade in the US, go to polymarket.us

icon for Who will Trump pardon before 2027?

Who will Trump pardon before 2027?

icon for Who will Trump pardon before 2027?

Who will Trump pardon before 2027?

$440,879 Vol.

Dec 31, 2026
Polymarket

$440,879 Vol.

Polymarket

Ryan Salame

$29,925 Vol.

25%

Donald Brodie

$1,875 Vol.

23%

Roger Stone

$4,232 Vol.

23%

Stefan Brodie

$2,642 Vol.

23%

Matt Gaetz

$3,877 Vol.

21%

Keonne Rodriguez

$17,520 Vol.

15%

Young Thug

$4,462 Vol.

11%

Daniel Penny

$508 Vol.

11%

Steve Bannon

$8,029 Vol.

10%

Joe Exotic

$5,369 Vol.

9%

Eric Adams

$1,101 Vol.

9%

Roger Ver

$1,617 Vol.

8%

Bob Menendez

$295 Vol.

6%

Andrew Tate

$1,014 Vol.

6%

Martin Shkreli

$29,723 Vol.

6%

Julian Assange

$3,691 Vol.

5%

Derek Chauvin

$25,110 Vol.

5%

Ghislaine Maxwell

$22,824 Vol.

5%

Diddy

$29,846 Vol.

5%

Nicolas Maduro

$9,571 Vol.

5%

Edward Snowden

$3,163 Vol.

4%

Elizabeth Holmes

$3,571 Vol.

4%

Antoine Massey

$2,480 Vol.

4%

Sam Bankman-Fried

$132,771 Vol.

4%

Himself

$13,643 Vol.

3%

Do Kwon

$23,620 Vol.

3%

Hunter Biden

$5,483 Vol.

2%

Elon Musk

$52,917 Vol.

2%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between December 4, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between November 17, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between December 16, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between January 2, 2026 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trump has exercised broad clemency authority in his second term, granting over 1,700 pardons and commutations since January 2025, often prioritizing political allies, donors, and advocates connected through informal networks rather than Department of Justice guidelines. Early actions included blanket relief for January 6 defendants and figures tied to 2020 election challenges, followed by targeted grants to individuals with personal or financial links to supporters. Recent batches, such as the 30 clemency actions in early September 2026 covering drug offenders and a Philadelphia union leader, reflect continued emphasis on cases advanced by White House pardon coordinators and external influencers. Market positioning for specific names before 2027 hinges on patterns of access, public advocacy campaigns, and proximity to administration priorities amid ongoing clemency reviews.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between November 17, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between November 17, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$440,879
End Date
Jan 1, 2027
Market Opened
Nov 18, 2025, 10:46 AM ET
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between December 4, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between November 17, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between December 16, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between January 2, 2026 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trump has exercised broad clemency authority in his second term, granting over 1,700 pardons and commutations since January 2025, often prioritizing political allies, donors, and advocates connected through informal networks rather than Department of Justice guidelines. Early actions included blanket relief for January 6 defendants and figures tied to 2020 election challenges, followed by targeted grants to individuals with personal or financial links to supporters. Recent batches, such as the 30 clemency actions in early September 2026 covering drug offenders and a Philadelphia union leader, reflect continued emphasis on cases advanced by White House pardon coordinators and external influencers. Market positioning for specific names before 2027 hinges on patterns of access, public advocacy campaigns, and proximity to administration priorities amid ongoing clemency reviews.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between November 17, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between November 17, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$440,879
End Date
Jan 1, 2027
Market Opened
Nov 18, 2025, 10:46 AM ET

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Who will Trump pardon before 2027?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 28 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Ryan Salame" at 25%, followed by "Donald Brodie" at 23%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 25¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 25% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Who will Trump pardon before 2027?" has generated $440.9K in total trading volume since the market launched on Nov 18, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Who will Trump pardon before 2027?," browse the 28 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Who will Trump pardon before 2027?" is "Ryan Salame" at 25%, meaning the market assigns a 25% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Donald Brodie" at 23%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Who will Trump pardon before 2027?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.