Traders assign Anthropic a dominant 77% implied probability for the best AI model by end of October, reflecting strong market consensus around its recent large language model releases and benchmark leadership relative to competitors. OpenAI and Google sit at just 8.2% and 11.3%, indicating limited near-term expectation of overtaking the frontrunner despite ongoing development. Most other labs remain at 50% or lower odds due to smaller scale, fewer demonstrated capabilities, and slower release cadence. These prices represent aggregated trader sentiment with real capital at stake, though AI timelines remain uncertain and a late benchmark shift or surprise announcement could still alter positioning before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedAnthropic 77%
Google 11.1%
OpenAI 10.7%
Meta 1.6%
$176,360 Vol.
$176,360 Vol.
Oct 31, 2026
Anthropic
77%
11%
OpenAI
11%
Meta
2%
SpaceXAI
1%
Z.ai
1%
Alibaba
<1%
Moonshot
<1%
DeepSeek
<1%
Baidu
<1%
ByteDance
<1%
Xiaomi
<1%
Amazon
<1%
Nvidia
<1%
Thinky
<1%
MiniMax
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Tencent
<1%
StepFun
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
Anthropic 77%
Google 11.1%
OpenAI 10.7%
Meta 1.6%
$176,360 Vol.
$176,360 Vol.
Oct 31, 2026
Anthropic
$31,658 Vol.
77%
$15,269 Vol.
11%
OpenAI
$15,227 Vol.
11%
Meta
$14,626 Vol.
2%
SpaceXAI
$10,657 Vol.
1%
Z.ai
$14,036 Vol.
1%
Alibaba
$10,192 Vol.
<1%
Moonshot
$11,458 Vol.
<1%
DeepSeek
$13,699 Vol.
<1%
Baidu
$8,756 Vol.
<1%
ByteDance
$8,206 Vol.
<1%
Xiaomi
$1,471 Vol.
<1%
Amazon
$2,066 Vol.
<1%
Nvidia
$7,360 Vol.
<1%
Thinky
$925 Vol.
<1%
MiniMax
$1,262 Vol.
<1%
Mistral
$1,800 Vol.
<1%
Meituan
$4,875 Vol.
<1%
Tencent
$949 Vol.
<1%
StepFun
$540 Vol.
<1%
Microsoft
$1,327 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Traders assign Anthropic a dominant 77% implied probability for the best AI model by end of October, reflecting strong market consensus around its recent large language model releases and benchmark leadership relative to competitors. OpenAI and Google sit at just 8.2% and 11.3%, indicating limited near-term expectation of overtaking the frontrunner despite ongoing development. Most other labs remain at 50% or lower odds due to smaller scale, fewer demonstrated capabilities, and slower release cadence. These prices represent aggregated trader sentiment with real capital at stake, though AI timelines remain uncertain and a late benchmark shift or surprise announcement could still alter positioning before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Market Opened: Aug 12, 2026, 8:01 PM ET
Volume
$176,360End Date
Nov 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 12, 2026, 8:01 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Traders assign Anthropic a dominant 77% implied probability for the best AI model by end of October, reflecting strong market consensus around its recent large language model releases and benchmark leadership relative to competitors. OpenAI and Google sit at just 8.2% and 11.3%, indicating limited near-term expectation of overtaking the frontrunner despite ongoing development. Most other labs remain at 50% or lower odds due to smaller scale, fewer demonstrated capabilities, and slower release cadence. These prices represent aggregated trader sentiment with real capital at stake, though AI timelines remain uncertain and a late benchmark shift or surprise announcement could still alter positioning before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volume
$176,360End Date
Nov 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 12, 2026, 8:01 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Traders assign Anthropic a dominant 77% implied probability for the best AI model by end of October, reflecting strong market consensus around its recent large language model releases and benchmark leadership relative to competitors. OpenAI and Google sit at just 8.2% and 11.3%, indicating limited near-term expectation of overtaking the frontrunner despite ongoing development. Most other labs remain at 50% or lower odds due to smaller scale, fewer demonstrated capabilities, and slower release cadence. These prices represent aggregated trader sentiment with real capital at stake, though AI timelines remain uncertain and a late benchmark shift or surprise announcement could still alter positioning before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions