Elevated early-season mosquito surveillance data from the NYC Health Department, showing over 1,500 West Nile virus-positive pools—nearly double last year’s pace—and nine confirmed neuroinvasive disease cases by early September are the main factors aligning trader consensus with the 20–34 case range at 61% implied probability. Historical patterns indicate recent annual averages of 25–36 neuroinvasive cases among city residents, with totals typically accumulating through October peak transmission. National CDC reports of higher-than-usual activity elsewhere add context, though local integrated pest management and bite prevention efforts introduce uncertainty. Remaining forecast updates through fall will clarify whether counts trend toward the 35–49 bin or stay moderate.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHow many West Nile neuroinvasive disease cases will be reported among New York City residents in 2026?
How many West Nile neuroinvasive disease cases will be reported among New York City residents in 2026?
20 to 34 62%
35 to 49 27%
50 or more 4.0%
Fewer than 20 3.5%
$10,578 Vol.
$10,578 Vol.
Mar 31, 2027
Fewer than 20
4%
20 to 34
62%
35 to 49
27%
50 or more
10%
20 to 34 62%
35 to 49 27%
50 or more 4.0%
Fewer than 20 3.5%
$10,578 Vol.
$10,578 Vol.
Mar 31, 2027
Fewer than 20
$2,943 Vol.
4%
20 to 34
$4,677 Vol.
62%
35 to 49
$2,455 Vol.
27%
50 or more
$504 Vol.
10%
This market resolves based on the total number of West Nile neuroinvasive disease cases (encephalitis, meningitis, and acute flaccid paralysis) reported among New York City residents in 2026, as published by the New York City Department of Health and Mental Hygiene on its West Nile Virus Reports page at nyc.gov/site/doh/health/health-topics/west-nile-virus-reports.page.
Cases are counted as whole numbers, so each outcome covers a distinct range with no overlap or gap.
The 2026 count shown on the source as of January 1, 2027 is the starting figure.
If the DOHMH publishes or revises the 2026 count on or after January 1, 2027, this market will resolve based on the count shown on the source at 11:59 PM ET on the 14th day after the first such update, or on March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, whichever comes first. If no such update occurs, this market will resolve on March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, based on the 2026 count shown on the source at that time.
If no 2026 count has been published on the source by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the sum of 2026 West Nile neuroinvasive disease case counts reported by CDC ArboNET for the five New York City counties (Bronx, Kings, New York, Queens, and Richmond). Revisions published after this market resolves will not be considered. If the DOHMH changes its reporting format or URL structure, the closest equivalent NYC Health Department publication of 2026 West Nile neuroinvasive case data will be used.Elevated early-season mosquito surveillance data from the NYC Health Department, showing over 1,500 West Nile virus-positive pools—nearly double last year’s pace—and nine confirmed neuroinvasive disease cases by early September are the main factors aligning trader consensus with the 20–34 case range at 61% implied probability. Historical patterns indicate recent annual averages of 25–36 neuroinvasive cases among city residents, with totals typically accumulating through October peak transmission. National CDC reports of higher-than-usual activity elsewhere add context, though local integrated pest management and bite prevention efforts introduce uncertainty. Remaining forecast updates through fall will clarify whether counts trend toward the 35–49 bin or stay moderate.
This market resolves based on the total number of West Nile neuroinvasive disease cases (encephalitis, meningitis, and acute flaccid paralysis) reported among New York City residents in 2026, as published by the New York City Department of Health and Mental Hygiene on its West Nile Virus Reports page at nyc.gov/site/doh/health/health-topics/west-nile-virus-reports.page.
Cases are counted as whole numbers, so each outcome covers a distinct range with no overlap or gap.
The 2026 count shown on the source as of January 1, 2027 is the starting figure.
If the DOHMH publishes or revises the 2026 count on or after January 1, 2027, this market will resolve based on the count shown on the source at 11:59 PM ET on the 14th day after the first such update, or on March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, whichever comes first. If no such update occurs, this market will resolve on March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, based on the 2026 count shown on the source at that time.
If no 2026 count has been published on the source by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the sum of 2026 West Nile neuroinvasive disease case counts reported by CDC ArboNET for the five New York City counties (Bronx, Kings, New York, Queens, and Richmond). Revisions published after this market resolves will not be considered. If the DOHMH changes its reporting format or URL structure, the closest equivalent NYC Health Department publication of 2026 West Nile neuroinvasive case data will be used.
Cases are counted as whole numbers, so each outcome covers a distinct range with no overlap or gap.
The 2026 count shown on the source as of January 1, 2027 is the starting figure.
If the DOHMH publishes or revises the 2026 count on or after January 1, 2027, this market will resolve based on the count shown on the source at 11:59 PM ET on the 14th day after the first such update, or on March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, whichever comes first. If no such update occurs, this market will resolve on March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, based on the 2026 count shown on the source at that time.
If no 2026 count has been published on the source by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the sum of 2026 West Nile neuroinvasive disease case counts reported by CDC ArboNET for the five New York City counties (Bronx, Kings, New York, Queens, and Richmond). Revisions published after this market resolves will not be considered. If the DOHMH changes its reporting format or URL structure, the closest equivalent NYC Health Department publication of 2026 West Nile neuroinvasive case data will be used.
Market Opened: Aug 20, 2026, 5:18 PM ET
Volume
$10,578End Date
Mar 31, 2027Market Opened
Aug 20, 2026, 5:18 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market resolves based on the total number of West Nile neuroinvasive disease cases (encephalitis, meningitis, and acute flaccid paralysis) reported among New York City residents in 2026, as published by the New York City Department of Health and Mental Hygiene on its West Nile Virus Reports page at nyc.gov/site/doh/health/health-topics/west-nile-virus-reports.page.
Cases are counted as whole numbers, so each outcome covers a distinct range with no overlap or gap.
The 2026 count shown on the source as of January 1, 2027 is the starting figure.
If the DOHMH publishes or revises the 2026 count on or after January 1, 2027, this market will resolve based on the count shown on the source at 11:59 PM ET on the 14th day after the first such update, or on March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, whichever comes first. If no such update occurs, this market will resolve on March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, based on the 2026 count shown on the source at that time.
If no 2026 count has been published on the source by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the sum of 2026 West Nile neuroinvasive disease case counts reported by CDC ArboNET for the five New York City counties (Bronx, Kings, New York, Queens, and Richmond). Revisions published after this market resolves will not be considered. If the DOHMH changes its reporting format or URL structure, the closest equivalent NYC Health Department publication of 2026 West Nile neuroinvasive case data will be used.Elevated early-season mosquito surveillance data from the NYC Health Department, showing over 1,500 West Nile virus-positive pools—nearly double last year’s pace—and nine confirmed neuroinvasive disease cases by early September are the main factors aligning trader consensus with the 20–34 case range at 61% implied probability. Historical patterns indicate recent annual averages of 25–36 neuroinvasive cases among city residents, with totals typically accumulating through October peak transmission. National CDC reports of higher-than-usual activity elsewhere add context, though local integrated pest management and bite prevention efforts introduce uncertainty. Remaining forecast updates through fall will clarify whether counts trend toward the 35–49 bin or stay moderate.
This market resolves based on the total number of West Nile neuroinvasive disease cases (encephalitis, meningitis, and acute flaccid paralysis) reported among New York City residents in 2026, as published by the New York City Department of Health and Mental Hygiene on its West Nile Virus Reports page at nyc.gov/site/doh/health/health-topics/west-nile-virus-reports.page.
Cases are counted as whole numbers, so each outcome covers a distinct range with no overlap or gap.
The 2026 count shown on the source as of January 1, 2027 is the starting figure.
If the DOHMH publishes or revises the 2026 count on or after January 1, 2027, this market will resolve based on the count shown on the source at 11:59 PM ET on the 14th day after the first such update, or on March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, whichever comes first. If no such update occurs, this market will resolve on March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, based on the 2026 count shown on the source at that time.
If no 2026 count has been published on the source by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the sum of 2026 West Nile neuroinvasive disease case counts reported by CDC ArboNET for the five New York City counties (Bronx, Kings, New York, Queens, and Richmond). Revisions published after this market resolves will not be considered. If the DOHMH changes its reporting format or URL structure, the closest equivalent NYC Health Department publication of 2026 West Nile neuroinvasive case data will be used.
Cases are counted as whole numbers, so each outcome covers a distinct range with no overlap or gap.
The 2026 count shown on the source as of January 1, 2027 is the starting figure.
If the DOHMH publishes or revises the 2026 count on or after January 1, 2027, this market will resolve based on the count shown on the source at 11:59 PM ET on the 14th day after the first such update, or on March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, whichever comes first. If no such update occurs, this market will resolve on March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, based on the 2026 count shown on the source at that time.
If no 2026 count has been published on the source by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the sum of 2026 West Nile neuroinvasive disease case counts reported by CDC ArboNET for the five New York City counties (Bronx, Kings, New York, Queens, and Richmond). Revisions published after this market resolves will not be considered. If the DOHMH changes its reporting format or URL structure, the closest equivalent NYC Health Department publication of 2026 West Nile neuroinvasive case data will be used.
Volume
$10,578End Date
Mar 31, 2027Market Opened
Aug 20, 2026, 5:18 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Elevated early-season mosquito surveillance data from the NYC Health Department, showing over 1,500 West Nile virus-positive pools—nearly double last year’s pace—and nine confirmed neuroinvasive disease cases by early September are the main factors aligning trader consensus with the 20–34 case range at 61% implied probability. Historical patterns indicate recent annual averages of 25–36 neuroinvasive cases among city residents, with totals typically accumulating through October peak transmission. National CDC reports of higher-than-usual activity elsewhere add context, though local integrated pest management and bite prevention efforts introduce uncertainty. Remaining forecast updates through fall will clarify whether counts trend toward the 35–49 bin or stay moderate.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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