**The United States declined to extend the USMCA for another 16 years during the mandatory July 1, 2026, joint review under Article 34.7, triggering annual reviews instead.** U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer stated that the agreement would not be renewed in its current form, citing concerns over trade deficits, automotive rules of origin, and measures to limit benefits to non-North American (including Chinese) goods. This decision, aligned with administration priorities for renegotiation and reshoring, keeps the pact in force through its 2036 sunset while opening repeated opportunities for extension via future annual reviews or bilateral talks. Canada and Mexico had sought a clean 16-year renewal, but the U.S. position set the outcome. Ongoing U.S.-Mexico negotiations (including a July round) and the absence of a trilateral deal through September have reinforced trader expectations that no extension will occur in 2026. The implied probability reflects this confirmed procedural path and lack of near-term consensus on revisions.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated15% chance
$10,687 Vol.
$10,687 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
15% chance
$10,687 Vol.
$10,687 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) is formally extended by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A qualifying extension requires all three parties to formally extend the term of the agreement. This may occur through written confirmation of their wish to extend the term for a further period pursuant to USMCA Article 34.7, or through other formal means that clearly and definitively extend the term, such as a unanimous amendment of the agreement. An extension qualifies whether or not it also includes negotiated modifications to the original agreement.
The following will not qualify: announcements unaccompanied by a formal extension; extension of individual provisions that does not extend the agreement's term itself; commitments to extend by fewer than all three parties; and replacement of the USMCA with a separate or successor agreement, as opposed to continuation of the existing agreement.
The primary resolution source is official information from the United States, Canada, and Mexico; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**The United States declined to extend the USMCA for another 16 years during the mandatory July 1, 2026, joint review under Article 34.7, triggering annual reviews instead.**
U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer stated that the agreement would not be renewed in its current form, citing concerns over trade deficits, automotive rules of origin, and measures to limit benefits to non-North American (including Chinese) goods. This decision, aligned with administration priorities for renegotiation and reshoring, keeps the pact in force through its 2036 sunset while opening repeated opportunities for extension via future annual reviews or bilateral talks. Canada and Mexico had sought a clean 16-year renewal, but the U.S. position set the outcome. Ongoing U.S.-Mexico negotiations (including a July round) and the absence of a trilateral deal through September have reinforced trader expectations that no extension will occur in 2026. The implied probability reflects this confirmed procedural path and lack of near-term consensus on revisions.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) is formally extended by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A qualifying extension requires all three parties to formally extend the term of the agreement. This may occur through written confirmation of their wish to extend the term for a further period pursuant to USMCA Article 34.7, or through other formal means that clearly and definitively extend the term, such as a unanimous amendment of the agreement. An extension qualifies whether or not it also includes negotiated modifications to the original agreement.
The following will not qualify: announcements unaccompanied by a formal extension; extension of individual provisions that does not extend the agreement's term itself; commitments to extend by fewer than all three parties; and replacement of the USMCA with a separate or successor agreement, as opposed to continuation of the existing agreement.
The primary resolution source is official information from the United States, Canada, and Mexico; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying extension requires all three parties to formally extend the term of the agreement. This may occur through written confirmation of their wish to extend the term for a further period pursuant to USMCA Article 34.7, or through other formal means that clearly and definitively extend the term, such as a unanimous amendment of the agreement. An extension qualifies whether or not it also includes negotiated modifications to the original agreement.
The following will not qualify: announcements unaccompanied by a formal extension; extension of individual provisions that does not extend the agreement's term itself; commitments to extend by fewer than all three parties; and replacement of the USMCA with a separate or successor agreement, as opposed to continuation of the existing agreement.
The primary resolution source is official information from the United States, Canada, and Mexico; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Jul 1, 2026, 5:35 PM ET
Volume
$10,687End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Jul 1, 2026, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) is formally extended by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A qualifying extension requires all three parties to formally extend the term of the agreement. This may occur through written confirmation of their wish to extend the term for a further period pursuant to USMCA Article 34.7, or through other formal means that clearly and definitively extend the term, such as a unanimous amendment of the agreement. An extension qualifies whether or not it also includes negotiated modifications to the original agreement.
The following will not qualify: announcements unaccompanied by a formal extension; extension of individual provisions that does not extend the agreement's term itself; commitments to extend by fewer than all three parties; and replacement of the USMCA with a separate or successor agreement, as opposed to continuation of the existing agreement.
The primary resolution source is official information from the United States, Canada, and Mexico; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**The United States declined to extend the USMCA for another 16 years during the mandatory July 1, 2026, joint review under Article 34.7, triggering annual reviews instead.**
U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer stated that the agreement would not be renewed in its current form, citing concerns over trade deficits, automotive rules of origin, and measures to limit benefits to non-North American (including Chinese) goods. This decision, aligned with administration priorities for renegotiation and reshoring, keeps the pact in force through its 2036 sunset while opening repeated opportunities for extension via future annual reviews or bilateral talks. Canada and Mexico had sought a clean 16-year renewal, but the U.S. position set the outcome. Ongoing U.S.-Mexico negotiations (including a July round) and the absence of a trilateral deal through September have reinforced trader expectations that no extension will occur in 2026. The implied probability reflects this confirmed procedural path and lack of near-term consensus on revisions.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) is formally extended by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A qualifying extension requires all three parties to formally extend the term of the agreement. This may occur through written confirmation of their wish to extend the term for a further period pursuant to USMCA Article 34.7, or through other formal means that clearly and definitively extend the term, such as a unanimous amendment of the agreement. An extension qualifies whether or not it also includes negotiated modifications to the original agreement.
The following will not qualify: announcements unaccompanied by a formal extension; extension of individual provisions that does not extend the agreement's term itself; commitments to extend by fewer than all three parties; and replacement of the USMCA with a separate or successor agreement, as opposed to continuation of the existing agreement.
The primary resolution source is official information from the United States, Canada, and Mexico; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying extension requires all three parties to formally extend the term of the agreement. This may occur through written confirmation of their wish to extend the term for a further period pursuant to USMCA Article 34.7, or through other formal means that clearly and definitively extend the term, such as a unanimous amendment of the agreement. An extension qualifies whether or not it also includes negotiated modifications to the original agreement.
The following will not qualify: announcements unaccompanied by a formal extension; extension of individual provisions that does not extend the agreement's term itself; commitments to extend by fewer than all three parties; and replacement of the USMCA with a separate or successor agreement, as opposed to continuation of the existing agreement.
The primary resolution source is official information from the United States, Canada, and Mexico; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$10,687End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Jul 1, 2026, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**The United States declined to extend the USMCA for another 16 years during the mandatory July 1, 2026, joint review under Article 34.7, triggering annual reviews instead.** U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer stated that the agreement would not be renewed in its current form, citing concerns over trade deficits, automotive rules of origin, and measures to limit benefits to non-North American (including Chinese) goods. This decision, aligned with administration priorities for renegotiation and reshoring, keeps the pact in force through its 2036 sunset while opening repeated opportunities for extension via future annual reviews or bilateral talks. Canada and Mexico had sought a clean 16-year renewal, but the U.S. position set the outcome. Ongoing U.S.-Mexico negotiations (including a July round) and the absence of a trilateral deal through September have reinforced trader expectations that no extension will occur in 2026. The implied probability reflects this confirmed procedural path and lack of near-term consensus on revisions.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions