Recent monthly U.S. trade data show the goods-and-services deficit running at an annualized pace near $744 billion over the trailing twelve months through July 2026, with July’s $88.6 billion gap reflecting a surge in capital-goods imports tied to AI infrastructure and a dip in commodity exports. Tariff measures implemented since 2025 have narrowed the cumulative year-to-date shortfall relative to 2025 peaks, while a record services surplus and resilient energy shipments provide offsets. The near-even split between the 700–800 billion and 800–900 billion brackets reflects ongoing uncertainty around further policy adjustments, the durability of AI-related import demand, and monthly volatility ahead of additional releases and potential tariff revisions.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$24,044 Vol.
$24,044 Vol.
Feb 27, 2027
<500B
3%
500–600B
4%
600–700B
11%
700–800B
43%
800–900B
42%
900B–1T
14%
1T–1.1T
4%
1.1T+
5%
$24,044 Vol.
$24,044 Vol.
Feb 27, 2027
<500B
$16,854 Vol.
3%
500–600B
$454 Vol.
4%
600–700B
$543 Vol.
11%
700–800B
$670 Vol.
43%
800–900B
$1,529 Vol.
42%
900B–1T
$1,407 Vol.
14%
1T–1.1T
$1,468 Vol.
4%
1.1T+
$1,119 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.Recent monthly U.S. trade data show the goods-and-services deficit running at an annualized pace near $744 billion over the trailing twelve months through July 2026, with July’s $88.6 billion gap reflecting a surge in capital-goods imports tied to AI infrastructure and a dip in commodity exports. Tariff measures implemented since 2025 have narrowed the cumulative year-to-date shortfall relative to 2025 peaks, while a record services surplus and resilient energy shipments provide offsets. The near-even split between the 700–800 billion and 800–900 billion brackets reflects ongoing uncertainty around further policy adjustments, the durability of AI-related import demand, and monthly volatility ahead of additional releases and potential tariff revisions.
This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Market Opened: Feb 25, 2026, 7:24 PM ET
Volume
$24,044End Date
Feb 28, 2027Market Opened
Feb 25, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.Recent monthly U.S. trade data show the goods-and-services deficit running at an annualized pace near $744 billion over the trailing twelve months through July 2026, with July’s $88.6 billion gap reflecting a surge in capital-goods imports tied to AI infrastructure and a dip in commodity exports. Tariff measures implemented since 2025 have narrowed the cumulative year-to-date shortfall relative to 2025 peaks, while a record services surplus and resilient energy shipments provide offsets. The near-even split between the 700–800 billion and 800–900 billion brackets reflects ongoing uncertainty around further policy adjustments, the durability of AI-related import demand, and monthly volatility ahead of additional releases and potential tariff revisions.
This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Volume
$24,044End Date
Feb 28, 2027Market Opened
Feb 25, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent monthly U.S. trade data show the goods-and-services deficit running at an annualized pace near $744 billion over the trailing twelve months through July 2026, with July’s $88.6 billion gap reflecting a surge in capital-goods imports tied to AI infrastructure and a dip in commodity exports. Tariff measures implemented since 2025 have narrowed the cumulative year-to-date shortfall relative to 2025 peaks, while a record services surplus and resilient energy shipments provide offsets. The near-even split between the 700–800 billion and 800–900 billion brackets reflects ongoing uncertainty around further policy adjustments, the durability of AI-related import demand, and monthly volatility ahead of additional releases and potential tariff revisions.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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