Moonshot's strong July 2026 release of the Kimi K3 open-weight model, which leads or places near the top on multiple agentic benchmarks for coding, long-horizon tasks, and tool use, drives its 43.5% implied probability as third-best AI agent lab by end of October. Traders see this as reflecting competitive dynamics where Chinese labs leverage massive parameter counts and lower-cost inference to close gaps on U.S. leaders like OpenAI's recently launched GPT-6 Astra and Anthropic's Claude Fable 5 series. OpenAI's low 10.5% odds stem partly from recent agent containment incidents and disclosure scrutiny, while broader uncertainty arises from shifting emphasis on reliable harnesses, multi-agent orchestration, and live benchmarks over raw model scale, with potential October updates from several labs able to reorder standings before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedMoonshot 44%
OpenAI 11%
Alibaba 10%
Z.ai 8.8%
$15,567 Vol.
$15,567 Vol.
Oct 31, 2026
Moonshot
44%
OpenAI
11%
Alibaba
10%
Z.ai
9%
Anthropic
8%
7%
Xiaomi
5%
Microsoft
5%
SpaceXAI
5%
DeepSeek
4%
ByteDance
1%
Meta
1%
Baidu
1%
MiniMax
1%
Nvidia
1%
Amazon
1%
Mistral
1%
Meituan
1%
Moonshot 44%
OpenAI 11%
Alibaba 10%
Z.ai 8.8%
$15,567 Vol.
$15,567 Vol.
Oct 31, 2026
Moonshot
$5,918 Vol.
44%
OpenAI
$4,337 Vol.
11%
Alibaba
$525 Vol.
10%
Z.ai
$437 Vol.
9%
Anthropic
$761 Vol.
8%
$290 Vol.
7%
Xiaomi
$257 Vol.
5%
Microsoft
$247 Vol.
5%
SpaceXAI
$517 Vol.
5%
DeepSeek
$332 Vol.
4%
ByteDance
$468 Vol.
1%
Meta
$224 Vol.
1%
Baidu
$219 Vol.
1%
MiniMax
$219 Vol.
1%
Nvidia
$179 Vol.
1%
Amazon
$196 Vol.
1%
Mistral
$224 Vol.
1%
Meituan
$219 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Moonshot's strong July 2026 release of the Kimi K3 open-weight model, which leads or places near the top on multiple agentic benchmarks for coding, long-horizon tasks, and tool use, drives its 43.5% implied probability as third-best AI agent lab by end of October. Traders see this as reflecting competitive dynamics where Chinese labs leverage massive parameter counts and lower-cost inference to close gaps on U.S. leaders like OpenAI's recently launched GPT-6 Astra and Anthropic's Claude Fable 5 series. OpenAI's low 10.5% odds stem partly from recent agent containment incidents and disclosure scrutiny, while broader uncertainty arises from shifting emphasis on reliable harnesses, multi-agent orchestration, and live benchmarks over raw model scale, with potential October updates from several labs able to reorder standings before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Market Opened: Aug 13, 2026, 5:10 PM ET
Volume
$15,567End Date
Nov 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 13, 2026, 5:10 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Moonshot's strong July 2026 release of the Kimi K3 open-weight model, which leads or places near the top on multiple agentic benchmarks for coding, long-horizon tasks, and tool use, drives its 43.5% implied probability as third-best AI agent lab by end of October. Traders see this as reflecting competitive dynamics where Chinese labs leverage massive parameter counts and lower-cost inference to close gaps on U.S. leaders like OpenAI's recently launched GPT-6 Astra and Anthropic's Claude Fable 5 series. OpenAI's low 10.5% odds stem partly from recent agent containment incidents and disclosure scrutiny, while broader uncertainty arises from shifting emphasis on reliable harnesses, multi-agent orchestration, and live benchmarks over raw model scale, with potential October updates from several labs able to reorder standings before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volume
$15,567End Date
Nov 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 13, 2026, 5:10 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Moonshot's strong July 2026 release of the Kimi K3 open-weight model, which leads or places near the top on multiple agentic benchmarks for coding, long-horizon tasks, and tool use, drives its 43.5% implied probability as third-best AI agent lab by end of October. Traders see this as reflecting competitive dynamics where Chinese labs leverage massive parameter counts and lower-cost inference to close gaps on U.S. leaders like OpenAI's recently launched GPT-6 Astra and Anthropic's Claude Fable 5 series. OpenAI's low 10.5% odds stem partly from recent agent containment incidents and disclosure scrutiny, while broader uncertainty arises from shifting emphasis on reliable harnesses, multi-agent orchestration, and live benchmarks over raw model scale, with potential October updates from several labs able to reorder standings before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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