Anthropic's Claude 5-series models currently lead Humanity's Last Exam (HLE) leaderboards, with Claude Fable 5.1 at 65% and closely trailing variants like Opus 5 and Mythos 5 around 64.5-64.7% as of early September 2026, according to BenchLM.ai snapshots. This edge stems from iterative advances in reasoning architectures, extended context handling, and tool-augmented evaluation on the 2,500-question expert-curated benchmark spanning mathematics, physics, biology, and humanities. Meta's Muse Spark 1.1 sits at 62.1%, while OpenAI's GPT-5.4 Pro reaches 58.7%, reflecting a tight frontier cluster that has climbed rapidly from low-40s percent earlier in the year. Remaining headroom before saturation, plus potential late-2026 releases or HLE-Rolling updates, keeps competitive positioning fluid for end-of-year outcomes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$54,171 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
60%+
59%
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31%
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17%
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12%
80%+
7%
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$54,171 Vol.
60%+
$29,070 Vol.
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65%+
$13,622 Vol.
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$5,265 Vol.
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$2,857 Vol.
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$1,151 Vol.
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$2,206 Vol.
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This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".Anthropic's Claude 5-series models currently lead Humanity's Last Exam (HLE) leaderboards, with Claude Fable 5.1 at 65% and closely trailing variants like Opus 5 and Mythos 5 around 64.5-64.7% as of early September 2026, according to BenchLM.ai snapshots. This edge stems from iterative advances in reasoning architectures, extended context handling, and tool-augmented evaluation on the 2,500-question expert-curated benchmark spanning mathematics, physics, biology, and humanities. Meta's Muse Spark 1.1 sits at 62.1%, while OpenAI's GPT-5.4 Pro reaches 58.7%, reflecting a tight frontier cluster that has climbed rapidly from low-40s percent earlier in the year. Remaining headroom before saturation, plus potential late-2026 releases or HLE-Rolling updates, keeps competitive positioning fluid for end-of-year outcomes.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
Market Opened: Jul 23, 2026, 6:41 PM ET
Volume
$54,171End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Jul 23, 2026, 6:41 PM ETResolution Source
https://agi.safe.ai/Resolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".Anthropic's Claude 5-series models currently lead Humanity's Last Exam (HLE) leaderboards, with Claude Fable 5.1 at 65% and closely trailing variants like Opus 5 and Mythos 5 around 64.5-64.7% as of early September 2026, according to BenchLM.ai snapshots. This edge stems from iterative advances in reasoning architectures, extended context handling, and tool-augmented evaluation on the 2,500-question expert-curated benchmark spanning mathematics, physics, biology, and humanities. Meta's Muse Spark 1.1 sits at 62.1%, while OpenAI's GPT-5.4 Pro reaches 58.7%, reflecting a tight frontier cluster that has climbed rapidly from low-40s percent earlier in the year. Remaining headroom before saturation, plus potential late-2026 releases or HLE-Rolling updates, keeps competitive positioning fluid for end-of-year outcomes.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
Volume
$54,171End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Jul 23, 2026, 6:41 PM ETResolution Source
https://agi.safe.ai/Resolver
0x65070BE91...Anthropic's Claude 5-series models currently lead Humanity's Last Exam (HLE) leaderboards, with Claude Fable 5.1 at 65% and closely trailing variants like Opus 5 and Mythos 5 around 64.5-64.7% as of early September 2026, according to BenchLM.ai snapshots. This edge stems from iterative advances in reasoning architectures, extended context handling, and tool-augmented evaluation on the 2,500-question expert-curated benchmark spanning mathematics, physics, biology, and humanities. Meta's Muse Spark 1.1 sits at 62.1%, while OpenAI's GPT-5.4 Pro reaches 58.7%, reflecting a tight frontier cluster that has climbed rapidly from low-40s percent earlier in the year. Remaining headroom before saturation, plus potential late-2026 releases or HLE-Rolling updates, keeps competitive positioning fluid for end-of-year outcomes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedRelated
Will the highest score achieved by an OpenAI model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 50% or higher?
90%
Will the highest score achieved by a Meta model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 55% or higher?
44%
Will the highest score achieved by an Anthropic Claude model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 55% or higher?
90%
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Frequently Asked Questions