OpenAI’s 61.5% implied probability for second-best AI agent lab stems primarily from its recent GPT-6 Astra release and GPT-5.6 Sol’s leading scores on verified agentic benchmarks such as Terminal-Bench, BrowseComp, and OSWorld, which highlight strong multi-step planning, tool use, and real-world deployment. Traders see these capabilities—bolstered by integrations with Microsoft ecosystems and Codex agent frameworks—as keeping OpenAI competitive even as Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1 and Opus 5 models top broader intelligence indexes and certain long-horizon agent arenas. Moonshot’s Kimi K3 has claimed isolated leaderboard spots, yet its low 1% odds reflect limited enterprise traction outside specific Chinese benchmarks. With September 30 resolution tied to arena.ai lab rankings, the market prices OpenAI’s consistent agentic momentum and recent product cadence above rivals amid rapid weekly model updates across the sector.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedOpenAI 62%
Anthropic 32%
Moonshot 1.0%
Xiaomi 1.0%
$55,963 Vol.
$55,963 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
OpenAI
62%
Anthropic
32%
Moonshot
1%
Xiaomi
1%
Z.ai
1%
SpaceXAI
<1%
Meta
<1%
Alibaba
<1%
<1%
DeepSeek
<1%
MiniMax
<1%
Nvidia
<1%
ByteDance
<1%
Baidu
<1%
Amazon
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
OpenAI 62%
Anthropic 32%
Moonshot 1.0%
Xiaomi 1.0%
$55,963 Vol.
$55,963 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
OpenAI
$27,298 Vol.
62%
Anthropic
$5,924 Vol.
32%
Moonshot
$7,381 Vol.
1%
Xiaomi
$3,259 Vol.
1%
Z.ai
$2,039 Vol.
1%
SpaceXAI
$1,707 Vol.
<1%
Meta
$745 Vol.
<1%
Alibaba
$824 Vol.
<1%
$1,086 Vol.
<1%
DeepSeek
$810 Vol.
<1%
MiniMax
$434 Vol.
<1%
Nvidia
$944 Vol.
<1%
ByteDance
$550 Vol.
<1%
Baidu
$703 Vol.
<1%
Amazon
$374 Vol.
<1%
Mistral
$995 Vol.
<1%
Meituan
$362 Vol.
<1%
Microsoft
$531 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".OpenAI’s 61.5% implied probability for second-best AI agent lab stems primarily from its recent GPT-6 Astra release and GPT-5.6 Sol’s leading scores on verified agentic benchmarks such as Terminal-Bench, BrowseComp, and OSWorld, which highlight strong multi-step planning, tool use, and real-world deployment. Traders see these capabilities—bolstered by integrations with Microsoft ecosystems and Codex agent frameworks—as keeping OpenAI competitive even as Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1 and Opus 5 models top broader intelligence indexes and certain long-horizon agent arenas. Moonshot’s Kimi K3 has claimed isolated leaderboard spots, yet its low 1% odds reflect limited enterprise traction outside specific Chinese benchmarks. With September 30 resolution tied to arena.ai lab rankings, the market prices OpenAI’s consistent agentic momentum and recent product cadence above rivals amid rapid weekly model updates across the sector.
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Market Opened: Aug 12, 2026, 7:40 PM ET
Volume
$55,963End Date
Oct 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 12, 2026, 7:40 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".OpenAI’s 61.5% implied probability for second-best AI agent lab stems primarily from its recent GPT-6 Astra release and GPT-5.6 Sol’s leading scores on verified agentic benchmarks such as Terminal-Bench, BrowseComp, and OSWorld, which highlight strong multi-step planning, tool use, and real-world deployment. Traders see these capabilities—bolstered by integrations with Microsoft ecosystems and Codex agent frameworks—as keeping OpenAI competitive even as Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1 and Opus 5 models top broader intelligence indexes and certain long-horizon agent arenas. Moonshot’s Kimi K3 has claimed isolated leaderboard spots, yet its low 1% odds reflect limited enterprise traction outside specific Chinese benchmarks. With September 30 resolution tied to arena.ai lab rankings, the market prices OpenAI’s consistent agentic momentum and recent product cadence above rivals amid rapid weekly model updates across the sector.
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volume
$55,963End Date
Oct 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 12, 2026, 7:40 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...OpenAI’s 61.5% implied probability for second-best AI agent lab stems primarily from its recent GPT-6 Astra release and GPT-5.6 Sol’s leading scores on verified agentic benchmarks such as Terminal-Bench, BrowseComp, and OSWorld, which highlight strong multi-step planning, tool use, and real-world deployment. Traders see these capabilities—bolstered by integrations with Microsoft ecosystems and Codex agent frameworks—as keeping OpenAI competitive even as Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1 and Opus 5 models top broader intelligence indexes and certain long-horizon agent arenas. Moonshot’s Kimi K3 has claimed isolated leaderboard spots, yet its low 1% odds reflect limited enterprise traction outside specific Chinese benchmarks. With September 30 resolution tied to arena.ai lab rankings, the market prices OpenAI’s consistent agentic momentum and recent product cadence above rivals amid rapid weekly model updates across the sector.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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