Skip to main content

To trade in the US, go to polymarket.us

icon for Next Google Gemini Pro Model released on...?
Tech·AI

Next Google Gemini Pro Model released on...?

icon for Next Google Gemini Pro Model released on...?
Tech·AI

Next Google Gemini Pro Model released on...?

Oct 1

Oct 1

No release by September 30 69%

September 30 5.2%

September 23 4.4%

September 7 4.3%

Polymarket

$62,751 Vol.

No release by September 30 69%

September 30 5.2%

September 23 4.4%

September 7 4.3%

Polymarket

$62,751 Vol.

September 6

$379 Vol.

<1%

September 7

$406 Vol.

4%

September 8

$361 Vol.

<1%

September 9

$331 Vol.

<1%

September 10

$331 Vol.

<1%

September 11

$298 Vol.

1%

September 12

$302 Vol.

1%

September 13

$331 Vol.

<1%

September 14

$404 Vol.

<1%

September 15

$542 Vol.

2%

September 16

$538 Vol.

1%

September 17

$542 Vol.

2%

September 18

$305 Vol.

<1%

September 19

$302 Vol.

1%

September 20

$302 Vol.

1%

September 21

$302 Vol.

1%

September 22

$579 Vol.

3%

September 23

$449 Vol.

4%

September 24

$589 Vol.

1%

September 25

$298 Vol.

1%

September 26

$300 Vol.

1%

September 27

$302 Vol.

1%

September 28

$480 Vol.

<1%

September 29

$370 Vol.

1%

September 30

$682 Vol.

5%

No release by September 30

$49,467 Vol.

69%

This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public. Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify. Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Google’s repeated delays on the long-teased Gemini 3.5 Pro continue to anchor trader sentiment, with the model still limited to partner testing and internal use as of early September 2026 despite a May I/O promise for a June or July launch. Frequent Flash-series updates—most recently Gemini 3.8 Flash on September 2—have filled the release cadence, but no frontier Pro model has shipped since Gemini 3.1 Pro in February. This pattern of timeline slippage and a shift toward monthly Flash iterations has produced the 69% market-implied probability of no Pro release by September 30, while leaving only slim odds for any specific date in the month.

This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public.

Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.

Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify.

A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public. Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify. Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$62,751
End Date
Oct 1, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 7:31 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public. Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify. Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Google’s repeated delays on the long-teased Gemini 3.5 Pro continue to anchor trader sentiment, with the model still limited to partner testing and internal use as of early September 2026 despite a May I/O promise for a June or July launch. Frequent Flash-series updates—most recently Gemini 3.8 Flash on September 2—have filled the release cadence, but no frontier Pro model has shipped since Gemini 3.1 Pro in February. This pattern of timeline slippage and a shift toward monthly Flash iterations has produced the 69% market-implied probability of no Pro release by September 30, while leaving only slim odds for any specific date in the month.

This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public.

Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.

Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify.

A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public. Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify. Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$62,751
End Date
Oct 1, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 7:31 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...

Related

icon for Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by November 1, 2026?

Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by November 1, 2026?

31%
icon for Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by October 31, 2026?

Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by October 31, 2026?

69%
icon for Next Google Gemini Flash-Lite Model (3.6+) released by November 30, 2026?

Next Google Gemini Flash-Lite Model (3.6+) released by November 30, 2026?

63%

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Next Google Gemini Pro Model released on...?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 31 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "No release by September 30" at 69%, followed by "September 30" at 5%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 69¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 69% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Next Google Gemini Pro Model released on...?" has generated $62.8K in total trading volume since the market launched on Aug 17, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Next Google Gemini Pro Model released on...?," browse the 31 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Next Google Gemini Pro Model released on...?" is "No release by September 30" at 69%, meaning the market assigns a 69% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "September 30" at 5%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Next Google Gemini Pro Model released on...?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.