Ongoing military operations and stalled diplomacy shape trader views on the likelihood of a Sudan ceasefire by the market's resolution date. Sudanese Armed Forces advances in North Kordofan and along key roads contrast with Rapid Support Forces drone strikes, counteroffensives in Blue Nile alongside SPLM-N allies, and continued fighting in Darfur, leaving neither side positioned for decisive victory. A June 2026 prisoner exchange marked the first such agreement since 2023, facilitated by UN envoy Pekka Haavisto, yet broader US-backed proposals for a 90-day humanitarian truce remain blocked by SAF demands for full RSF withdrawal from occupied cities. International pressure continues through Quad mediation, potential UN sanctions renewal on September 12, and calls to expand the arms embargo, while external support and humanitarian deterioration sustain the conflict. Scheduled UN General Assembly discussions in September could influence momentum toward or away from de-escalation.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedSudan civil war ceasefire by...?
Sudan civil war ceasefire by...?
$119,424 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
December 31, 2026
13%
$119,424 Vol.
December 31, 2026
$14,886 Vol.
13%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) and the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both the Rapid Support Forces and the Sudanese Armed Forces; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between the Rapid Support Forces and the Sudanese Armed Forces has been reached will suffice.This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) and the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both the Rapid Support Forces and the Sudanese Armed Forces; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between the Rapid Support Forces and the Sudanese Armed Forces has been reached will suffice.Ongoing military operations and stalled diplomacy shape trader views on the likelihood of a Sudan ceasefire by the market's resolution date. Sudanese Armed Forces advances in North Kordofan and along key roads contrast with Rapid Support Forces drone strikes, counteroffensives in Blue Nile alongside SPLM-N allies, and continued fighting in Darfur, leaving neither side positioned for decisive victory. A June 2026 prisoner exchange marked the first such agreement since 2023, facilitated by UN envoy Pekka Haavisto, yet broader US-backed proposals for a 90-day humanitarian truce remain blocked by SAF demands for full RSF withdrawal from occupied cities. International pressure continues through Quad mediation, potential UN sanctions renewal on September 12, and calls to expand the arms embargo, while external support and humanitarian deterioration sustain the conflict. Scheduled UN General Assembly discussions in September could influence momentum toward or away from de-escalation.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) and the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both the Rapid Support Forces and the Sudanese Armed Forces; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between the Rapid Support Forces and the Sudanese Armed Forces has been reached will suffice.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both the Rapid Support Forces and the Sudanese Armed Forces; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between the Rapid Support Forces and the Sudanese Armed Forces has been reached will suffice.
Market Opened: Dec 22, 2025, 2:08 PM ET
Volume
$119,424End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Dec 22, 2025, 2:08 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) and the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both the Rapid Support Forces and the Sudanese Armed Forces; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between the Rapid Support Forces and the Sudanese Armed Forces has been reached will suffice.This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) and the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both the Rapid Support Forces and the Sudanese Armed Forces; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between the Rapid Support Forces and the Sudanese Armed Forces has been reached will suffice.Ongoing military operations and stalled diplomacy shape trader views on the likelihood of a Sudan ceasefire by the market's resolution date. Sudanese Armed Forces advances in North Kordofan and along key roads contrast with Rapid Support Forces drone strikes, counteroffensives in Blue Nile alongside SPLM-N allies, and continued fighting in Darfur, leaving neither side positioned for decisive victory. A June 2026 prisoner exchange marked the first such agreement since 2023, facilitated by UN envoy Pekka Haavisto, yet broader US-backed proposals for a 90-day humanitarian truce remain blocked by SAF demands for full RSF withdrawal from occupied cities. International pressure continues through Quad mediation, potential UN sanctions renewal on September 12, and calls to expand the arms embargo, while external support and humanitarian deterioration sustain the conflict. Scheduled UN General Assembly discussions in September could influence momentum toward or away from de-escalation.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) and the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both the Rapid Support Forces and the Sudanese Armed Forces; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between the Rapid Support Forces and the Sudanese Armed Forces has been reached will suffice.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both the Rapid Support Forces and the Sudanese Armed Forces; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between the Rapid Support Forces and the Sudanese Armed Forces has been reached will suffice.
Volume
$119,424End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Dec 22, 2025, 2:08 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing military operations and stalled diplomacy shape trader views on the likelihood of a Sudan ceasefire by the market's resolution date. Sudanese Armed Forces advances in North Kordofan and along key roads contrast with Rapid Support Forces drone strikes, counteroffensives in Blue Nile alongside SPLM-N allies, and continued fighting in Darfur, leaving neither side positioned for decisive victory. A June 2026 prisoner exchange marked the first such agreement since 2023, facilitated by UN envoy Pekka Haavisto, yet broader US-backed proposals for a 90-day humanitarian truce remain blocked by SAF demands for full RSF withdrawal from occupied cities. International pressure continues through Quad mediation, potential UN sanctions renewal on September 12, and calls to expand the arms embargo, while external support and humanitarian deterioration sustain the conflict. Scheduled UN General Assembly discussions in September could influence momentum toward or away from de-escalation.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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