**Sudan’s civil war between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) under Gen. Abdel Fattah al-Burhan and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) under Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo shows no near-term ceasefire despite ongoing mediation.** Recent SAF advances in North Darfur, Blue Nile, and North Kordofan have strengthened Khartoum’s battlefield position, while RSF counteroffensives and drone strikes on infrastructure sustain pressure and complicate ground campaigns. US-led proposals for a 90-day humanitarian truce tied to phased withdrawals have been revised with Saudi input, yet SAF insists on full RSF withdrawal from cities occupied since 2023 as a precondition, alongside security arrangements and preservation of a unified national army. Burhan’s August 2026 “Sudanese-to-Sudanese Dialogue” initiative, endorsed by the African Union, excludes the RSF and draws criticism for sidestepping direct talks between the belligerents. A June prisoner exchange facilitated by UN envoy Pekka Haavisto marks limited humanitarian progress, but broader Quad (US, Saudi Arabia, UAE, Egypt) efforts and prior Jeddah commitments remain stalled amid mutual preconditions, external arms flows, and regional dynamics. The UN Security Council’s September 2026 sanctions review and continued fighting in multiple fronts keep resolution timelines uncertain.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedSudan civil war ceasefire by...?
Sudan civil war ceasefire by...?
$119,424 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
December 31, 2026
13%
$119,424 Vol.
December 31, 2026
$14,886 Vol.
13%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) and the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both the Rapid Support Forces and the Sudanese Armed Forces; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between the Rapid Support Forces and the Sudanese Armed Forces has been reached will suffice.This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) and the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both the Rapid Support Forces and the Sudanese Armed Forces; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between the Rapid Support Forces and the Sudanese Armed Forces has been reached will suffice.**Sudan’s civil war between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) under Gen. Abdel Fattah al-Burhan and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) under Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo shows no near-term ceasefire despite ongoing mediation.** Recent SAF advances in North Darfur, Blue Nile, and North Kordofan have strengthened Khartoum’s battlefield position, while RSF counteroffensives and drone strikes on infrastructure sustain pressure and complicate ground campaigns. US-led proposals for a 90-day humanitarian truce tied to phased withdrawals have been revised with Saudi input, yet SAF insists on full RSF withdrawal from cities occupied since 2023 as a precondition, alongside security arrangements and preservation of a unified national army. Burhan’s August 2026 “Sudanese-to-Sudanese Dialogue” initiative, endorsed by the African Union, excludes the RSF and draws criticism for sidestepping direct talks between the belligerents. A June prisoner exchange facilitated by UN envoy Pekka Haavisto marks limited humanitarian progress, but broader Quad (US, Saudi Arabia, UAE, Egypt) efforts and prior Jeddah commitments remain stalled amid mutual preconditions, external arms flows, and regional dynamics. The UN Security Council’s September 2026 sanctions review and continued fighting in multiple fronts keep resolution timelines uncertain.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) and the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both the Rapid Support Forces and the Sudanese Armed Forces; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between the Rapid Support Forces and the Sudanese Armed Forces has been reached will suffice.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both the Rapid Support Forces and the Sudanese Armed Forces; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between the Rapid Support Forces and the Sudanese Armed Forces has been reached will suffice.
Market Opened: Dec 22, 2025, 2:08 PM ET
Volume
$119,424End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Dec 22, 2025, 2:08 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) and the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both the Rapid Support Forces and the Sudanese Armed Forces; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between the Rapid Support Forces and the Sudanese Armed Forces has been reached will suffice.This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) and the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both the Rapid Support Forces and the Sudanese Armed Forces; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between the Rapid Support Forces and the Sudanese Armed Forces has been reached will suffice.**Sudan’s civil war between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) under Gen. Abdel Fattah al-Burhan and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) under Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo shows no near-term ceasefire despite ongoing mediation.** Recent SAF advances in North Darfur, Blue Nile, and North Kordofan have strengthened Khartoum’s battlefield position, while RSF counteroffensives and drone strikes on infrastructure sustain pressure and complicate ground campaigns. US-led proposals for a 90-day humanitarian truce tied to phased withdrawals have been revised with Saudi input, yet SAF insists on full RSF withdrawal from cities occupied since 2023 as a precondition, alongside security arrangements and preservation of a unified national army. Burhan’s August 2026 “Sudanese-to-Sudanese Dialogue” initiative, endorsed by the African Union, excludes the RSF and draws criticism for sidestepping direct talks between the belligerents. A June prisoner exchange facilitated by UN envoy Pekka Haavisto marks limited humanitarian progress, but broader Quad (US, Saudi Arabia, UAE, Egypt) efforts and prior Jeddah commitments remain stalled amid mutual preconditions, external arms flows, and regional dynamics. The UN Security Council’s September 2026 sanctions review and continued fighting in multiple fronts keep resolution timelines uncertain.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) and the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both the Rapid Support Forces and the Sudanese Armed Forces; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between the Rapid Support Forces and the Sudanese Armed Forces has been reached will suffice.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both the Rapid Support Forces and the Sudanese Armed Forces; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between the Rapid Support Forces and the Sudanese Armed Forces has been reached will suffice.
Volume
$119,424End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Dec 22, 2025, 2:08 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Sudan’s civil war between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) under Gen. Abdel Fattah al-Burhan and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) under Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo shows no near-term ceasefire despite ongoing mediation.** Recent SAF advances in North Darfur, Blue Nile, and North Kordofan have strengthened Khartoum’s battlefield position, while RSF counteroffensives and drone strikes on infrastructure sustain pressure and complicate ground campaigns. US-led proposals for a 90-day humanitarian truce tied to phased withdrawals have been revised with Saudi input, yet SAF insists on full RSF withdrawal from cities occupied since 2023 as a precondition, alongside security arrangements and preservation of a unified national army. Burhan’s August 2026 “Sudanese-to-Sudanese Dialogue” initiative, endorsed by the African Union, excludes the RSF and draws criticism for sidestepping direct talks between the belligerents. A June prisoner exchange facilitated by UN envoy Pekka Haavisto marks limited humanitarian progress, but broader Quad (US, Saudi Arabia, UAE, Egypt) efforts and prior Jeddah commitments remain stalled amid mutual preconditions, external arms flows, and regional dynamics. The UN Security Council’s September 2026 sanctions review and continued fighting in multiple fronts keep resolution timelines uncertain.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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