Google's Gemini series, particularly recent 3.7 Flash and Pro variants, drives trader sentiment for second place on the Text Arena Math leaderboard by delivering strong Elo scores near 1524 and competitive performance on math reasoning benchmarks. Anthropic's Claude models currently occupy the top lab positions through consistent high-rated releases like Claude Fable 5 and Opus 5, creating a clear first-place dynamic. OpenAI's GPT-5.x family trails slightly in the current arena snapshots despite strong results on formal benchmarks such as MATH-500 and AIME, while Chinese labs and others remain further back. With roughly three weeks until resolution, incremental model updates or inference-time scaling improvements from Google or OpenAI could shift the tight implied probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedGoogle 55%
OpenAI 26.1%
Anthropic 16.5%
Alibaba 2.1%
$45,008 Vol.
$45,008 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
55%
OpenAI
26%
Anthropic
16%
Alibaba
2%
Meta
1%
Z.ai
1%
Baidu
<1%
Moonshot
<1%
ByteDance
<1%
DeepSeek
<1%
Xiaomi
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Tencent
<1%
SpaceXAI
<1%
Meituan
<1%
StepFun
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
MiniMax
<1%
Nvidia
<1%
Amazon
<1%
Google 55%
OpenAI 26.1%
Anthropic 16.5%
Alibaba 2.1%
$45,008 Vol.
$45,008 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
$13,695 Vol.
55%
OpenAI
$4,827 Vol.
26%
Anthropic
$4,025 Vol.
16%
Alibaba
$5,579 Vol.
2%
Meta
$1,143 Vol.
1%
Z.ai
$1,183 Vol.
1%
Baidu
$1,144 Vol.
<1%
Moonshot
$1,275 Vol.
<1%
ByteDance
$1,055 Vol.
<1%
DeepSeek
$1,080 Vol.
<1%
Xiaomi
$1,472 Vol.
<1%
Mistral
$1,091 Vol.
<1%
Tencent
$1,136 Vol.
<1%
SpaceXAI
$1,001 Vol.
<1%
Meituan
$1,044 Vol.
<1%
StepFun
$566 Vol.
<1%
Microsoft
$910 Vol.
<1%
MiniMax
$1,063 Vol.
<1%
Nvidia
$766 Vol.
<1%
Amazon
$951 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Google's Gemini series, particularly recent 3.7 Flash and Pro variants, drives trader sentiment for second place on the Text Arena Math leaderboard by delivering strong Elo scores near 1524 and competitive performance on math reasoning benchmarks. Anthropic's Claude models currently occupy the top lab positions through consistent high-rated releases like Claude Fable 5 and Opus 5, creating a clear first-place dynamic. OpenAI's GPT-5.x family trails slightly in the current arena snapshots despite strong results on formal benchmarks such as MATH-500 and AIME, while Chinese labs and others remain further back. With roughly three weeks until resolution, incremental model updates or inference-time scaling improvements from Google or OpenAI could shift the tight implied probabilities.
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Market Opened: Jul 24, 2026, 8:03 PM ET
Volume
$45,008End Date
Oct 1, 2026Market Opened
Jul 24, 2026, 8:03 PM ETResolution Source
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labsResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Google's Gemini series, particularly recent 3.7 Flash and Pro variants, drives trader sentiment for second place on the Text Arena Math leaderboard by delivering strong Elo scores near 1524 and competitive performance on math reasoning benchmarks. Anthropic's Claude models currently occupy the top lab positions through consistent high-rated releases like Claude Fable 5 and Opus 5, creating a clear first-place dynamic. OpenAI's GPT-5.x family trails slightly in the current arena snapshots despite strong results on formal benchmarks such as MATH-500 and AIME, while Chinese labs and others remain further back. With roughly three weeks until resolution, incremental model updates or inference-time scaling improvements from Google or OpenAI could shift the tight implied probabilities.
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volume
$45,008End Date
Oct 1, 2026Market Opened
Jul 24, 2026, 8:03 PM ETResolution Source
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labsResolver
0x69c47De9D...Google's Gemini series, particularly recent 3.7 Flash and Pro variants, drives trader sentiment for second place on the Text Arena Math leaderboard by delivering strong Elo scores near 1524 and competitive performance on math reasoning benchmarks. Anthropic's Claude models currently occupy the top lab positions through consistent high-rated releases like Claude Fable 5 and Opus 5, creating a clear first-place dynamic. OpenAI's GPT-5.x family trails slightly in the current arena snapshots despite strong results on formal benchmarks such as MATH-500 and AIME, while Chinese labs and others remain further back. With roughly three weeks until resolution, incremental model updates or inference-time scaling improvements from Google or OpenAI could shift the tight implied probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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