Sven Schulze leads the market at 72.5% as the incumbent CDU Ministerpräsident and party chair, positioned to lead post-election coalition talks after succeeding Reiner Haseloff in January 2026 via Landtag vote. Traders price Ulrich Siegmund at 25.5% given the AfD’s polling lead ahead of the September 6 Landtagswahl, though other parties have ruled out cooperation, complicating any path to the state premiership. The many candidates listed at 50% or 0.1% reflect limited realistic prospects outside the major parties’ established leadership and parliamentary arithmetic. Coalition formation after the vote, rather than raw seat totals alone, remains the decisive factor shaping implied probabilities.