Google’s repeated delays on the long-teased Gemini 3.5 Pro continue to anchor trader sentiment, with the model still absent from public API and app releases despite an initial June 2026 target set at I/O. Internal benchmarks fell short on coding and agentic tasks, prompting Google to prioritize monthly Flash iterations—including the generally available Gemini 3.8 Flash on September 2—while 3.5 Pro remains in partner testing. Pretraining on the next flagship, Gemini 4, has begun but post-training timelines point well beyond September. These verified patterns of slippage and the absence of any recent official launch window explain why markets assign roughly two-thirds probability to no Pro release by month-end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNo release by September 30 69%
September 30 6.0%
September 23 3.8%
September 22 2.7%
$62,043 Vol.
$62,043 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
September 5
1%
September 6
<1%
September 7
2%
September 8
<1%
September 9
<1%
September 10
<1%
September 11
1%
September 12
1%
September 13
<1%
September 14
<1%
September 15
2%
September 16
1%
September 17
1%
September 18
<1%
September 19
1%
September 20
1%
September 21
1%
September 22
3%
September 23
4%
September 24
2%
September 25
1%
September 26
1%
September 27
1%
September 28
<1%
September 29
1%
September 30
6%
No release by September 30
69%
No release by September 30 69%
September 30 6.0%
September 23 3.8%
September 22 2.7%
$62,043 Vol.
$62,043 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
September 5
$302 Vol.
1%
September 6
$307 Vol.
<1%
September 7
$406 Vol.
2%
September 8
$294 Vol.
<1%
September 9
$302 Vol.
<1%
September 10
$302 Vol.
<1%
September 11
$298 Vol.
1%
September 12
$302 Vol.
1%
September 13
$302 Vol.
<1%
September 14
$307 Vol.
<1%
September 15
$542 Vol.
2%
September 16
$538 Vol.
1%
September 17
$542 Vol.
1%
September 18
$305 Vol.
<1%
September 19
$302 Vol.
1%
September 20
$302 Vol.
1%
September 21
$302 Vol.
1%
September 22
$579 Vol.
3%
September 23
$449 Vol.
4%
September 24
$589 Vol.
2%
September 25
$298 Vol.
1%
September 26
$300 Vol.
1%
September 27
$302 Vol.
1%
September 28
$480 Vol.
<1%
September 29
$370 Vol.
1%
September 30
$682 Vol.
6%
No release by September 30
$49,147 Vol.
69%
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public.
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Google’s repeated delays on the long-teased Gemini 3.5 Pro continue to anchor trader sentiment, with the model still absent from public API and app releases despite an initial June 2026 target set at I/O. Internal benchmarks fell short on coding and agentic tasks, prompting Google to prioritize monthly Flash iterations—including the generally available Gemini 3.8 Flash on September 2—while 3.5 Pro remains in partner testing. Pretraining on the next flagship, Gemini 4, has begun but post-training timelines point well beyond September. These verified patterns of slippage and the absence of any recent official launch window explain why markets assign roughly two-thirds probability to no Pro release by month-end.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public.
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 7:31 PM ET
Volume
$62,043End Date
Oct 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 7:31 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public.
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Google’s repeated delays on the long-teased Gemini 3.5 Pro continue to anchor trader sentiment, with the model still absent from public API and app releases despite an initial June 2026 target set at I/O. Internal benchmarks fell short on coding and agentic tasks, prompting Google to prioritize monthly Flash iterations—including the generally available Gemini 3.8 Flash on September 2—while 3.5 Pro remains in partner testing. Pretraining on the next flagship, Gemini 4, has begun but post-training timelines point well beyond September. These verified patterns of slippage and the absence of any recent official launch window explain why markets assign roughly two-thirds probability to no Pro release by month-end.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public.
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$62,043End Date
Oct 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 7:31 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Google’s repeated delays on the long-teased Gemini 3.5 Pro continue to anchor trader sentiment, with the model still absent from public API and app releases despite an initial June 2026 target set at I/O. Internal benchmarks fell short on coding and agentic tasks, prompting Google to prioritize monthly Flash iterations—including the generally available Gemini 3.8 Flash on September 2—while 3.5 Pro remains in partner testing. Pretraining on the next flagship, Gemini 4, has begun but post-training timelines point well beyond September. These verified patterns of slippage and the absence of any recent official launch window explain why markets assign roughly two-thirds probability to no Pro release by month-end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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