Google’s repeated delays on Gemini 3.5 Pro—teased at I/O in May 2026 for a June rollout, then slipped to July—remain the dominant factor behind the market’s roughly 54% implied probability of no Pro release by November 1. The flagship large language model has stayed in limited partner testing as it falls short of internal coding and long-horizon performance targets, while Google ships frequent 3.x Flash updates (3.6 through 3.8) to maintain cadence. Competitive pressure from OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 and Anthropic’s Claude 5 series underscores the gap. Pretraining on the more ambitious Gemini 4 has advanced, shifting attention toward a potential late-2026 frontier release once post-training completes. Earnings commentary or partner feedback could still alter near-term odds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$1,227,235 Vol.
Oct 31, 2026
September 15
3%
September 30
33%
October 31
78%
$1,227,235 Vol.
September 15
$9,957 Vol.
3%
September 30
$51,918 Vol.
33%
October 31
$9,277 Vol.
78%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Google’s repeated delays on Gemini 3.5 Pro—teased at I/O in May 2026 for a June rollout, then slipped to July—remain the dominant factor behind the market’s roughly 54% implied probability of no Pro release by November 1. The flagship large language model has stayed in limited partner testing as it falls short of internal coding and long-horizon performance targets, while Google ships frequent 3.x Flash updates (3.6 through 3.8) to maintain cadence. Competitive pressure from OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 and Anthropic’s Claude 5 series underscores the gap. Pretraining on the more ambitious Gemini 4 has advanced, shifting attention toward a potential late-2026 frontier release once post-training completes. Earnings commentary or partner feedback could still alter near-term odds.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 9:18 AM ET
Volume
$1,227,235End Date
Nov 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 9:18 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Google’s repeated delays on Gemini 3.5 Pro—teased at I/O in May 2026 for a June rollout, then slipped to July—remain the dominant factor behind the market’s roughly 54% implied probability of no Pro release by November 1. The flagship large language model has stayed in limited partner testing as it falls short of internal coding and long-horizon performance targets, while Google ships frequent 3.x Flash updates (3.6 through 3.8) to maintain cadence. Competitive pressure from OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 and Anthropic’s Claude 5 series underscores the gap. Pretraining on the more ambitious Gemini 4 has advanced, shifting attention toward a potential late-2026 frontier release once post-training completes. Earnings commentary or partner feedback could still alter near-term odds.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$1,227,235End Date
Nov 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 9:18 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Google’s repeated delays on Gemini 3.5 Pro—teased at I/O in May 2026 for a June rollout, then slipped to July—remain the dominant factor behind the market’s roughly 54% implied probability of no Pro release by November 1. The flagship large language model has stayed in limited partner testing as it falls short of internal coding and long-horizon performance targets, while Google ships frequent 3.x Flash updates (3.6 through 3.8) to maintain cadence. Competitive pressure from OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 and Anthropic’s Claude 5 series underscores the gap. Pretraining on the more ambitious Gemini 4 has advanced, shifting attention toward a potential late-2026 frontier release once post-training completes. Earnings commentary or partner feedback could still alter near-term odds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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