Recent U.S. economic data and forecaster consensus underpin the 97.5% market-implied odds against negative GDP growth in 2026. Second-quarter real GDP expanded at a 1.5% annualized rate, with underlying strength in consumer spending, business investment, and AI-driven productivity gains offsetting softer housing and higher energy prices. Major projections, including those from the IMF, CBO, and private banks, center on 2.0–2.3% full-year growth, supported by resilient labor markets and capital expenditures. Trader sentiment reflects this baseline trajectory, pricing in continued expansion near potential. Tail risks that could still shift outcomes include an abrupt escalation in geopolitical energy shocks or a sharp tightening in financial conditions that triggers a broad contraction.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNegative GDP growth in 2026?
Negative GDP growth in 2026?
3% chance
$33,278 Vol.
$33,278 Vol.
Jan 28, 2027
3% chance
$33,278 Vol.
$33,278 Vol.
Jan 28, 2027
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.Recent U.S. economic data and forecaster consensus underpin the 97.5% market-implied odds against negative GDP growth in 2026. Second-quarter real GDP expanded at a 1.5% annualized rate, with underlying strength in consumer spending, business investment, and AI-driven productivity gains offsetting softer housing and higher energy prices. Major projections, including those from the IMF, CBO, and private banks, center on 2.0–2.3% full-year growth, supported by resilient labor markets and capital expenditures. Trader sentiment reflects this baseline trajectory, pricing in continued expansion near potential. Tail risks that could still shift outcomes include an abrupt escalation in geopolitical energy shocks or a sharp tightening in financial conditions that triggers a broad contraction.
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
Market Opened: Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ET
Volume
$33,278End Date
Jan 29, 2027Market Opened
Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.Recent U.S. economic data and forecaster consensus underpin the 97.5% market-implied odds against negative GDP growth in 2026. Second-quarter real GDP expanded at a 1.5% annualized rate, with underlying strength in consumer spending, business investment, and AI-driven productivity gains offsetting softer housing and higher energy prices. Major projections, including those from the IMF, CBO, and private banks, center on 2.0–2.3% full-year growth, supported by resilient labor markets and capital expenditures. Trader sentiment reflects this baseline trajectory, pricing in continued expansion near potential. Tail risks that could still shift outcomes include an abrupt escalation in geopolitical energy shocks or a sharp tightening in financial conditions that triggers a broad contraction.
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
Volume
$33,278End Date
Jan 29, 2027Market Opened
Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent U.S. economic data and forecaster consensus underpin the 97.5% market-implied odds against negative GDP growth in 2026. Second-quarter real GDP expanded at a 1.5% annualized rate, with underlying strength in consumer spending, business investment, and AI-driven productivity gains offsetting softer housing and higher energy prices. Major projections, including those from the IMF, CBO, and private banks, center on 2.0–2.3% full-year growth, supported by resilient labor markets and capital expenditures. Trader sentiment reflects this baseline trajectory, pricing in continued expansion near potential. Tail risks that could still shift outcomes include an abrupt escalation in geopolitical energy shocks or a sharp tightening in financial conditions that triggers a broad contraction.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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