Wellington's overnight low on September 6 hinges on radiative cooling rates under variable southerly flow through Cook Strait, with market-implied odds clustered near 12–13°C reflecting uncertainty in wind mixing and cloud cover. Stronger southerlies, already evident in recent model runs, advect cooler maritime air while increasing turbulence that limits surface temperature drops, whereas lighter winds or clearer breaks could allow greater nocturnal cooling toward 10–11°C. Persistent low cloud and showers from the approaching front suppress further declines by trapping heat, consistent with historical spring patterns where coastal moderation keeps minima above inland analogs. Official MetService and NIWA observations through the night will resolve the threshold, as small shifts in dew point or wind gusts differentiate these tightly matched outcomes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Wellington on September 6?
Lowest temperature in Wellington on September 6?
9°C 94%
10°C 94%
12°C 49%
11°C 47%
NEW
NEW
Sep 6, 2026
8°C or below
1%
9°C
94%
10°C
94%
11°C
47%
12°C
49%
13°C
49%
14°C
<1%
15°C
<1%
16°C
<1%
17°C
<1%
18°C or higher
<1%
9°C 94%
10°C 94%
12°C 49%
11°C 47%
NEW
NEW
Sep 6, 2026
8°C or below
$40 Vol.
1%
9°C
$5 Vol.
94%
10°C
$15 Vol.
94%
11°C
$6 Vol.
47%
12°C
$1 Vol.
49%
13°C
$45 Vol.
49%
14°C
$40 Vol.
<1%
15°C
$35 Vol.
<1%
16°C
$35 Vol.
<1%
17°C
$35 Vol.
<1%
18°C or higher
$35 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Wellington's overnight low on September 6 hinges on radiative cooling rates under variable southerly flow through Cook Strait, with market-implied odds clustered near 12–13°C reflecting uncertainty in wind mixing and cloud cover. Stronger southerlies, already evident in recent model runs, advect cooler maritime air while increasing turbulence that limits surface temperature drops, whereas lighter winds or clearer breaks could allow greater nocturnal cooling toward 10–11°C. Persistent low cloud and showers from the approaching front suppress further declines by trapping heat, consistent with historical spring patterns where coastal moderation keeps minima above inland analogs. Official MetService and NIWA observations through the night will resolve the threshold, as small shifts in dew point or wind gusts differentiate these tightly matched outcomes.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 4, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
Volume
$292End Date
Sep 6, 2026Market Opened
Sep 4, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwnResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Wellington's overnight low on September 6 hinges on radiative cooling rates under variable southerly flow through Cook Strait, with market-implied odds clustered near 12–13°C reflecting uncertainty in wind mixing and cloud cover. Stronger southerlies, already evident in recent model runs, advect cooler maritime air while increasing turbulence that limits surface temperature drops, whereas lighter winds or clearer breaks could allow greater nocturnal cooling toward 10–11°C. Persistent low cloud and showers from the approaching front suppress further declines by trapping heat, consistent with historical spring patterns where coastal moderation keeps minima above inland analogs. Official MetService and NIWA observations through the night will resolve the threshold, as small shifts in dew point or wind gusts differentiate these tightly matched outcomes.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$292End Date
Sep 6, 2026Market Opened
Sep 4, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwnResolver
0x69c47De9D...Wellington's overnight low on September 6 hinges on radiative cooling rates under variable southerly flow through Cook Strait, with market-implied odds clustered near 12–13°C reflecting uncertainty in wind mixing and cloud cover. Stronger southerlies, already evident in recent model runs, advect cooler maritime air while increasing turbulence that limits surface temperature drops, whereas lighter winds or clearer breaks could allow greater nocturnal cooling toward 10–11°C. Persistent low cloud and showers from the approaching front suppress further declines by trapping heat, consistent with historical spring patterns where coastal moderation keeps minima above inland analogs. Official MetService and NIWA observations through the night will resolve the threshold, as small shifts in dew point or wind gusts differentiate these tightly matched outcomes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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