**Trader consensus strongly favors a 4°C minimum in Wellington on September 8, 2026, reflecting consistent forecast guidance from regional models and official sources.** Overnight lows are projected near 39°F (approximately 4°C) under mostly cloudy skies with light easterly winds, aligning with typical early-spring climatology where September minima average around 7–9°C but can dip lower with clear or calm conditions. Ensemble outputs and station guidance from MetService and international models show tight clustering around this threshold, with limited spread that reduces the chance of readings at 3°C or below. Resolution depends on the official daily minimum from the primary observing site, typically the airport or central station. Unseasonal radiative cooling or a sharper wind shift could push readings marginally lower, though current atmospheric patterns make significant deviation unlikely before final observations.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Wellington on September 8?
Lowest temperature in Wellington on September 8?
4°C 100.0%
3°C or below 1.0%
5°C <1%
6°C <1%
$2,260 Vol.
$2,260 Vol.
Sep 8, 2026
3°C or below
No
4°C
Yes
5°C
No
6°C
No
7°C
No
8°C
No
9°C
No
10°C
No
11°C
No
12°C
No
13°C or higher
No
4°C 100.0%
3°C or below 1.0%
5°C <1%
6°C <1%
$2,260 Vol.
$2,260 Vol.
Sep 8, 2026
3°C or below
$123 Vol.
No
4°C
$470 Vol.
Yes
5°C
$45 Vol.
No
6°C
$209 Vol.
No
7°C
$149 Vol.
No
8°C
$274 Vol.
No
9°C
$35 Vol.
No
10°C
$45 Vol.
No
11°C
$0 Vol.
No
12°C
$910 Vol.
No
13°C or higher
$0 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader consensus strongly favors a 4°C minimum in Wellington on September 8, 2026, reflecting consistent forecast guidance from regional models and official sources.** Overnight lows are projected near 39°F (approximately 4°C) under mostly cloudy skies with light easterly winds, aligning with typical early-spring climatology where September minima average around 7–9°C but can dip lower with clear or calm conditions. Ensemble outputs and station guidance from MetService and international models show tight clustering around this threshold, with limited spread that reduces the chance of readings at 3°C or below. Resolution depends on the official daily minimum from the primary observing site, typically the airport or central station. Unseasonal radiative cooling or a sharper wind shift could push readings marginally lower, though current atmospheric patterns make significant deviation unlikely before final observations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 6, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
Volume
$2,260End Date
Sep 8, 2026Market Opened
Sep 6, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwnResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader consensus strongly favors a 4°C minimum in Wellington on September 8, 2026, reflecting consistent forecast guidance from regional models and official sources.** Overnight lows are projected near 39°F (approximately 4°C) under mostly cloudy skies with light easterly winds, aligning with typical early-spring climatology where September minima average around 7–9°C but can dip lower with clear or calm conditions. Ensemble outputs and station guidance from MetService and international models show tight clustering around this threshold, with limited spread that reduces the chance of readings at 3°C or below. Resolution depends on the official daily minimum from the primary observing site, typically the airport or central station. Unseasonal radiative cooling or a sharper wind shift could push readings marginally lower, though current atmospheric patterns make significant deviation unlikely before final observations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$2,260End Date
Sep 8, 2026Market Opened
Sep 6, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwnResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
**Trader consensus strongly favors a 4°C minimum in Wellington on September 8, 2026, reflecting consistent forecast guidance from regional models and official sources.** Overnight lows are projected near 39°F (approximately 4°C) under mostly cloudy skies with light easterly winds, aligning with typical early-spring climatology where September minima average around 7–9°C but can dip lower with clear or calm conditions. Ensemble outputs and station guidance from MetService and international models show tight clustering around this threshold, with limited spread that reduces the chance of readings at 3°C or below. Resolution depends on the official daily minimum from the primary observing site, typically the airport or central station. Unseasonal radiative cooling or a sharper wind shift could push readings marginally lower, though current atmospheric patterns make significant deviation unlikely before final observations.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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