Incumbent Republican Brad Little, seeking a third term, secured his party's nomination in the May 19, 2026 primary with 59 percent of the vote against multiple challengers. Democratic nominee Terri Pickens won her primary with 61 percent. All major forecasters rate the November 3 general election as solid or safe Republican, consistent with Idaho's partisan profile and the 36-point Republican presidential margin in 2024. Recent polling from late July showed Little ahead by 21 points or more. Trader consensus reflects the state's structural Republican advantage, Little's established record on education and tax policy, and the absence of competitive momentum for Democrats. A major late scandal, health event, or unprecedented turnout surge would be required to alter the outcome.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$23,327 Vol.
$23,327 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Republican
96%
Democrat
4%
$23,327 Vol.
$23,327 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Republican
$19,732 Vol.
96%
Democrat
$3,595 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Idaho gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Republican Brad Little, seeking a third term, secured his party's nomination in the May 19, 2026 primary with 59 percent of the vote against multiple challengers. Democratic nominee Terri Pickens won her primary with 61 percent. All major forecasters rate the November 3 general election as solid or safe Republican, consistent with Idaho's partisan profile and the 36-point Republican presidential margin in 2024. Recent polling from late July showed Little ahead by 21 points or more. Trader consensus reflects the state's structural Republican advantage, Little's established record on education and tax policy, and the absence of competitive momentum for Democrats. A major late scandal, health event, or unprecedented turnout surge would be required to alter the outcome.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Idaho gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Market Opened: Oct 13, 2025, 6:38 PM ET
Volume
$23,327End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Oct 13, 2025, 6:38 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Idaho gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Republican Brad Little, seeking a third term, secured his party's nomination in the May 19, 2026 primary with 59 percent of the vote against multiple challengers. Democratic nominee Terri Pickens won her primary with 61 percent. All major forecasters rate the November 3 general election as solid or safe Republican, consistent with Idaho's partisan profile and the 36-point Republican presidential margin in 2024. Recent polling from late July showed Little ahead by 21 points or more. Trader consensus reflects the state's structural Republican advantage, Little's established record on education and tax policy, and the absence of competitive momentum for Democrats. A major late scandal, health event, or unprecedented turnout surge would be required to alter the outcome.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Idaho gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Volume
$23,327End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Oct 13, 2025, 6:38 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Brad Little, seeking a third term, secured his party's nomination in the May 19, 2026 primary with 59 percent of the vote against multiple challengers. Democratic nominee Terri Pickens won her primary with 61 percent. All major forecasters rate the November 3 general election as solid or safe Republican, consistent with Idaho's partisan profile and the 36-point Republican presidential margin in 2024. Recent polling from late July showed Little ahead by 21 points or more. Trader consensus reflects the state's structural Republican advantage, Little's established record on education and tax policy, and the absence of competitive momentum for Democrats. A major late scandal, health event, or unprecedented turnout surge would be required to alter the outcome.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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