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icon for Hawaii Governor Election: Turnout
Politics·Turnout

Hawaii Governor Election: Turnout

icon for Hawaii Governor Election: Turnout
Politics·Turnout

Hawaii Governor Election: Turnout

370K-400K 20%

<310K 18%

430K-460K 17%

490K+ 17%

Polymarket
NEW

370K-400K 20%

<310K 18%

430K-460K 17%

490K+ 17%

Polymarket
NEW

<310K

$50 Vol.

18%

310K-340K

$106 Vol.

13%

340K-370K

$45 Vol.

9%

370K-400K

$105 Vol.

20%

400K-430K

$75 Vol.

5%

430K-460K

$55 Vol.

22%

460K-490K

$50 Vol.

9%

490K+

$78 Vol.

21%

This market will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Governor of Hawaii. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Governor of Hawaii, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Hawaii's historically low voter participation, driven by persistent apathy and limited electoral competition, anchors trader expectations for the November 3 general election turnout. Recent primary results showed just 28-33% participation amid a quiet cycle, with analysts citing structural factors like all-mail voting's incomplete offset and voter perceptions that individual ballots matter little. Incumbent Democratic Governor Josh Green faces Republican Gary Cordery in a solidly Democratic contest with few contested down-ballot races, mirroring past midterms where lopsided margins suppressed engagement. With roughly 788,000 registered voters, the spread of probabilities across mid-range totals reflects uncertainty over whether modest enthusiasm gains or continued disinterest will prevail, alongside any late mobilization efforts in key areas like Oahu.

This market will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Governor of Hawaii.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.

All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Governor of Hawaii, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Governor of Hawaii. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Governor of Hawaii, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$565
End Date
Nov 3, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 18, 2026, 10:20 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Governor of Hawaii. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Governor of Hawaii, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Hawaii's historically low voter participation, driven by persistent apathy and limited electoral competition, anchors trader expectations for the November 3 general election turnout. Recent primary results showed just 28-33% participation amid a quiet cycle, with analysts citing structural factors like all-mail voting's incomplete offset and voter perceptions that individual ballots matter little. Incumbent Democratic Governor Josh Green faces Republican Gary Cordery in a solidly Democratic contest with few contested down-ballot races, mirroring past midterms where lopsided margins suppressed engagement. With roughly 788,000 registered voters, the spread of probabilities across mid-range totals reflects uncertainty over whether modest enthusiasm gains or continued disinterest will prevail, alongside any late mobilization efforts in key areas like Oahu.

This market will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Governor of Hawaii.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.

All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Governor of Hawaii, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Governor of Hawaii. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Governor of Hawaii, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$565
End Date
Nov 3, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 18, 2026, 10:20 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Hawaii Governor Election: Turnout" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 8 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "430K-460K" at 22%, followed by "490K+" at 21%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 22¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 22% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Hawaii Governor Election: Turnout" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Aug 18, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Hawaii Governor Election: Turnout," browse the 8 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Hawaii Governor Election: Turnout" is "430K-460K" at 22%, meaning the market assigns a 22% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "490K+" at 21%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Hawaii Governor Election: Turnout" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.